The best bet: Manchester City to make fast start in decisive derby

A game to unite even the fiercest of rivals, much has been made of the mindset in which Manchester United will approach what is usually a must win derby for their fans.

Given the fine margins at the top of the table between their neighbours in the blue corner and enemies on the red side of the Mersey, tonight’s match is a curious one to say the least. Every Liverpool fan is praying for a Manchester United win, while there are some of a United persuasion that wouldn't be disappointed to see their side lose.

The Red Devils still have a battle for a top four finish to concern themselves with, however, so the notion that their may be a lack of effort on the hosts’ part seems strange. Indeed, while the circumstances surrounding the title race have aided in raising odds on a United win to their highest ever in the Premier League at Old Trafford, it’s the form of the two sides that is the clearest indicator that an away victory is the most likely outcome.

Pep Guardiola’s side have picked a decent time to go on the longest winning streak (ten matches) of any Premier League side all season after all, while Solskjaer’s men have lost their way. It’s not that all hope is lost for the Norwegian just yet, but the 4-0 defeat at Everton on Sunday was the worst in a run of six over the team’s last eight matches.

Wins over Watford and West Ham in that time were fortuitous too, and the side’s last goal not to come from the penalty spot was Scott McTominay’s early strike against Wolves, with 437 minutes of action passing since.

With that in mind it’s little wonder the visitors to Old Trafford tonight are tipped to win relatively comfortably, despite not being at their very best in front of goal of late. Their defensive record in the Premier League has been outstanding recently, amassing as many clean sheets in their last nine matches (seven) as Manchester United have managed all season.

The odds, then, on Manchester City to win to nil are at a tempting high of 2.72 with Marathon Bet right now, while an away win by two or more goals (City -1.5 on the Asian Handicap) is also worth considering, with a price of 2.42 from Bet Victor.

Our top tip, however, could lead to a far greater profit and nor will you be waiting long to see if your bet comes in. It is, after all, with the timing of goals in mind.

Given the likelihood of the champions finding the net against this United defence, the chances of them scoring first - and early - are high. Indeed, in the last nine league meetings between the sides in which City have scored they have done so before their neighbours on all nine occasions.

In seven of the last eight of said occasions the Cityzens have found the breakthrough in the first half, netting ten times before the break and seven inside the first 30 minutes in total in that spell. We’re backing an even earlier away goal, however, with this evening’s visitors to Old Trafford scoring inside 15 minutes in four of the last ten league meetings between the sides, including the reverse fixture.

David Silva’s 12th minute strike at the Etihad is one of 18 goals Guardiola’s fast starters have scored inside the first quarter of an hour this season, which is just two fewer than Huddersfield all season. Meanwhile they have conceded just the once in that time bracket.

A plus 17 goal difference in the opening stages is not only vastly superior to their host’s in the same timeframe - a concerning minus one - but better than that of Manchester United over the entirety of matches in the league this season (plus 15). As a result, our long shot (incidentally David de Gea’s achilles heel at present) is on Manchester City to be leading after 15 minutes, which is priced up by Ladbrokes at a lofty 4.75.