Guimaraes, Luiz or Arthur? Arsenal midfield search hones in on Brazil trio
There has been a trend to Arsenal's search for a new midfielder this month, with the three names most strongly linked with the club all hailing from Brazil.
The Gunners' need for reinforcements in the middle of the park has been made abundantly clear in recent weeks. Injuries and the absences of Thomas Partey - now back at the club - and Mohamed Elneny due to AFCON duty have left Mikel Arteta painfully short of options. Despite that, the club sanctioned the departure of Ainsley Maitland-Niles on loan, confident that they can add to their squad this month.
While the aforementioned Partey is a nailed on starter regardless of whom the club can bring in, finding the Ghanaian a partner is a priority. When fit, that has usually been Granit Xhaka but the need to move on from the much maligned Swiss international continues to build. In his last ten appearances for the club, the 29-year-old has been booked four times and sent off twice. While he's the most experienced player they have, and on his day a perfectly good footballer, he's all too often a liability.
One player that has been linked with replacing the former Arsenal captain for some time now is Bruno Guimaraes of Lyon, although Newcastle are still in talks with both the player and French club to steal a march and profit from the Gunners' apparent hesitance. Juventus' Arthur has also been linked with a loan move, but while Arsenal reportedly just want a deal until the end of this season, the Italian giant would like to extend that move until the end of the next campaign.
More recently, Arsenal have been credited with an interest in Aston Villa's Douglas Luiz, for whom the Midlands club have already rejected a £30m bid this month from an unnamed Premier League club that isn't Arsenal. Reports suggest that the Londoners remain interested in a player that Villa are only now offering a new contract to extend past his current deal, which expires next year.
So of the Selecao trio, which would be the most shrewd signing, and how do their profiles compare not only to one another but that of Xhaka?
Well, let's start at the end... Based on each player's statistically calculated rating from WhoScored.com, it's Guimaraes that is the clear front runner, with a score of 6.96 since the start of last season. Having established himself as a mainstay this season, that rating is up to 7.15 from the current campaign alone, which is again the strongest of the quartet.
Douglas Luiz ranks second in both regards, with a modest rating of 6.76 since the start of last season and an improved score of 6.91 this time around. By contrast, Granit Xhaka's form has reversed, with an already average 6.73 last season dropping to just 6.60 this. Meanwhile, Arthur's inability to cement a place in the team at Juventus has seen him start just 17 of 29 appearances since the start of last season, resulting in a meagre rating of 6.53.
Those substitute appearances are all important though, which is why we've looked at the players key metrics per 90 minutes over the same timeframe.
As a consequence, Arthur's figures suddenly appear far more encouraging. He has the strongest pass accuracy of the four at an outstanding 93.2 per cent, and leads the way for ball recoveries per 90 (7.39), 50-50 duel win rate (58.7 per cent) and, perhaps surprisingly, dribble success (78.6 per cent). While his superb pass accuracy can be attributed to his cautious, possession based approach - averaging the lowest proportion of passes forward at just 21.1 per cent - that is offset somewhat by his ability to carry the ball forwards himself.
It's something that Guimaraes is particularly strong at too, but without any compromise to his passing game. An overall success rate of 89.3 per cent is on a par with Xhaka, whilst he is the most creative of the four too, averaging 1.43 key passes per 90. The 24-year-old is also the most combative, with an average of 3.39 tackles per 90 dwarfing that of his competition and a completion rate of 52.5 per cent also leading the way. The only small issue with his defensive stats come in 50-50 duels, winning just 43.5 per cent.
Luiz's stats since the start of last season are more modest, only leading the way when it comes to interceptions (1.35). His tackle completion rate (44 per cent), ball recoveries (6.49 per 90) and pass accuracy (85.2 per cent) are the lowest of the four, but the latter can certainly be attributed to playing in a side that sees far less of the ball than the likes of Arsenal, Lyon or Juventus.
It's his progression with each season that makes Luiz an interesting candidate, not to mention his Premier League experience. At 23 he is the youngest of the targets assessed here, and his tackles per 90 are up from 1.6 last season to 2 this, while dribbles (0.7 to 1.3) and key passes (0.6 to 1.5) have risen even more substantially. The Brazil international has often been played as the sitting midfielder in a three for Villa through necessity, but in a double pivot alongside the strong presence of Partey, the more dynamic elements of his game could continue to develop.
As for Xhaka, the surprising statistic would probably be the fact that he ranks first of the four in terms of the proportion of passes he plays forward (30.9 per cent). That's the only category he leads, however, and is somewhat counteracted by the fewest key passes per 90 (0.67) and worst dribble success rate (50 per cent).
All in all, if Arsenal want a safe pair of hands/feet alongside Partey, a short term move for Arthur may well be a wise move. If they are looking more towards the future, as is abundantly clear, Guimaraes and Luiz offer more dynamism. The former is the stronger of the two when comparing statistics, but the quality of the opposition faced, along with playing for a stronger side within his respective league can't be overlooked.
The price point for both would appear to be similar. Somewhere in the region of £35m to £40m for either could prove to be enough. Stylistically you know what you are getting from Guimaraes, whereas Luiz is somewhat of an unknown entity despite being a Premier League mainstay for the best part of three seasons. There's a real sense that Villa are yet to see the best of him, which Steven Gerrard has acknowledged is not all the fault of the player. Could Arsenal be the place for him to fulfil his undoubted potential?