Support for star midfielders will decide how far Croatia can go
All the talk is of their midfield, and why wouldn’t it be? Having the magnificence of Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic at their disposal means most conversations around Croatia are centred around the Real Madrid and Barcelona pair, but that’s fair enough – especially after Modric’s sublime long-ranger authored victory in the opening match with Turkey.
It will have gone at least some way to laying the ghosts of Euros past, after the quarter-final elimination in Vienna back in 2008 that has its place in recent Croatian, as well as Turkish, football legend. Ante Cacic’s team go into Friday’s sophomore fixture with the Czech Republic buoyed by what could properly be described as a 1-0 thrashing – they had 19 shots (6 on target) to Turkey’s 9, and Danijel Subasic was a virtual spectator, having to field just 2 efforts on target.
What comes next is of every importance. Croatia looked good in the opening stages of the group campaign in the last edition of the tournament, taking 4 points from their first two matches in Poznan, against Republic of Ireland and Italy. Yet a narrow defeat against Spain in the third game saw them eliminated. An identical situation is not on the cards this time, given the reformatting and the fact that four third-placed teams will qualify, but the principle remains the same. Promising beginnings must be extended if Croatia are to blossom into the dark horses that many believe they can be.
To do that, Modric and Rakitic need support. In immediate proximity, that task will fall to Milan Badelj and Marcelo Brozovic, as Cacic looks to create his own carré magique in the land where the original version of that midfield propelled the hosts to victory in this tournament in 1984.
Badelj is very much the water carrier of the group, to borrow a descriptive term used on another France midfield unit – relating, of course, to Les Bleus’ current coach. The Fiorentina man is the unfussy all-rounder of the quartet, having made 3 tackles, 4 clearances and an interception against Turkey, while also blocking 2 shots. Badelj also only committed 1 foul in that match, and such was Croatia’s domination that he also managed to break forward and to get 2 shots away.
Yet it’s with Brozovic that things become really interesting. Having succeeded Mateo Kovacic as Croatia’s representative in the centre of Inter’s midfield following the 22-year-old’s departure to Real Madrid, he has now swept past Kovacic in the national team pecking order, after the latter’s largely fallow maiden campaign at the Bernabéu, in which he started just 8 La Liga matches (rating 6.50).
At the same time, Brozovic rated 7.06 in his 25 Serie A starts for the Nerazzurri this season, but he really began to impose his authority on Roberto Mancini’s midfield in the last few months of the campaign. From February, Brozovic scored 4 times and supplied 5 assists in all competitions, which included what may be seen in years to come as his breakthrough match – the Coppa Italia semi-final second leg against Juventus, when he scored twice in a stirring (if ultimately vain) comeback by Inter.
The 23-year-old may not have had his best match against Turkey – rating 6.49 – but his confidence to take control of situations was clear. Brozovic had a match-high 6 shots at goal, even if he landed just 1 on target. Here, he showed his potential to complement the team’s stars as needed. Modric is about keeping the team’s rhythm ticking over, completing 88.1% of his passes (including 2 key), while the supremely versatile Rakitic adds a little bit of incision, landing 90% of his passes (4 key) and producing 2 dribbles. While Badelj does the rough stuff, Brozovic brings a welcome directness.
Going forward, Cacic will hope for greater shooting accuracy from Brozovic – and more of a contribution from his forwards. If there was a slight concern in victory over Turkey, it was that the margin of victory was so narrow, and that the goalscorer was an unlikely one. Modric’s goal was only his 11th for Croatia, and his first since 2014, as he approaches the 100-cap mark.
Brozovic’s senior colleague at Inter, Ivan Perisic, is one possible source of joy against the Czechs, having performed well against Turkey, rating 8.06. Only the frame of the goal denied him a goal in the opener, but he will face a different challenge at Saint Etienne. Pavel Kaderábek and Theodor Gebre Selassie successfully double-teamed Nolito in the opener with Spain, sticking very close together, as we can see from the player average position chart from that match (below). Perisic will need to use his pace and guile wisely.
At the spearhead, Mario Mandzukic will need to bring his A-game. If we recall 2012 again, Mandzukic looked most likely to sweep Croatia to glory then, scoring three times in those opening 2 matches. As Jonathan Wilson pointed out on these pages earlier in the week, Croatia attempted a lot of crosses against Turkey (15), but Roman Hubnik and the excellent Tomas Sivok dominated their penalty area against Spain, making 13 clearances between them.
Mandzukic will need to use all his intelligence to break through against the Czechs. He could work on one of his tried and tested tactics from his Bayern Munich days, cutting Sivok and Hubnik out of the picture by peeling wide and creating an aerial mismatch with a full-back. Noting the advanced positions consistently taken up by David Limbersky on the Czech left (again, referring the player average position map) against Spain, this could be a good bet for Croatia.
Nothing is likely to be definitively won or lost for Croatia at Stade Geoffroy Guichard – but we might get a clue to their durability in this year’s competition.
Can this Croatia side go one step further than 2008 and progress past the quarter-finals? Let us know in the comments below
