Leicester are on the cusp of writing their way into the history books for all the wrong reasons. In 1938, Manchester City became the first defending champions to be relegated from the top-flight of English football. With one point separating the Foxes and 18th placed Hull, it’s a very real possibility that Leicester, who enjoyed their fairytale title win last term, will drop into the Championship this term as their form deteriorates at an alarming rate.
Having crashed out of the FA Cup to Millwall at the weekend, the Champions League could provide a welcome reprieve for Claudio Ranieri’s side. After all, their best form has come in Europe’s elite club competition, where they topped Group G with 13 points from a possible 18. Of the six goals they conceded, five came at Porto on the last gameweek of the group stages, having already progressed as group winners. However, their dream in Europe could turn into a nightmare in midweek.
Having won just one of their last eight competitive fixtures – that an FA Cup replay against Derby, securing victory in extra time – their trip to Sevilla couldn’t have come at a worse time. Jorge Sampaoli’s side are third in La Liga with their style of play earning them numerous plaudits across the continent. This was to be expected from a Sampoali side given the Argentine always implements a high-intensity, attack-minded approach, and Sevilla have been no exception.
They have failed to score just the once at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan in all competitions this season, which certainly doesn’t bode well for a Leicester side that has kept just three clean sheets on the road this term. Only Burnley (1) have earned fewer away points than Leicester (3) in the Premier League this season, while only Bournemouth and Hull (28) have conceded more league goals on their travels than the Foxes (27). While many felt they were handed a somewhat favourable draw – on paper at least – a trip to Seville certainly won't be easy for labouring Leicester.
Fortunately for them, Sevilla are as prone to conceding as they are scoring, having kept just four clean sheets in front of their own fans in La Liga this term. Leicester built their success on a set up of sitting back and hitting teams on the counter attack and while this approach is now failing to have the desired effect in the Premier League, it’s in the Foxes’ best interests to deploy a similar tactic against a side that play with an expansive style. If they were to go on the offensive too much Sevilla have the quality to pick the English champions off at a whim, though it's vital they pressure the Spanish side’s backline when possible.
Imposing themselves on the game, though, will be easier said than done for a Leicester side that is yet to score a league goal in 2017. Their goalscoring woes are well documented, with last season’s top scorer Jamie Vardy among many struggling to have the same effect. He’s scored in just one of his last 26 competitive appearances for Ranieri’s side, that a hat-trick in the 4-2 win over Manchester City. What’s more is that Vardy has faltered in his pursuit of goal having last mustered a shot on target in the Premier League in the 1-1 draw with Stoke on December 17th.
Furthermore the 30-year-old is yet to score in his five Champions League starts this season – Wednesday would be as good a time as any for Vardy to break his duck in the competition. With Sevilla looking to commit men forward, there may well be space for Vardy to run into, which could be Leicester’s best chance of hurting Sevilla. Exploiting the space the hosts leave in behind is something that opponents have managed relatively often against Sampaoli's side - who have conceded 28 league goals this season - though that is dependent on the Foxes deploying the direct approach that made them so effective last term.
However, teams know that if they can stop the supply to the frontline and press the Leicester defence in their own half, the Foxes fail to get the ball forward to hurt the opposition. This ultimately could be one of Sevilla’s best routes to goal. Only three teams have won possession in the attacking third more times than Sevilla (103) in La Liga this season as they pursue the ball in packs to force the issue. With the Leicester defence routinely faltering and being forced into mistakes, Sevilla have the attacking quality to really put the Foxes to the sword.
Coming into the tie, this now looks to be the most one-sided encounter at the last-16 stage of the Champions League, with Sevilla in fine form and Leicester struggling beyond belief. The defending champions need a minor miracle to come away from Seville relatively unscathed, but it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see Sevilla put the two-legged affair beyond Leicester’s reach after 90 minutes in Spain.
