When the winter transfer window closed, the main story of deadline day wasn’t a big money move for a player, but rather Manchester City’s confirmation that Pep Guardiola would succeed Manuel Pellegrini at the Etihad Stadium. Widely regarded as the worst kept secret in football, the announcement came as little shock to football fans, but its timing was headline news.
Indeed, with a good three months of both City and Bayern’s respective seasons to go at the time, there was reason to believe both could falter. That hasn't really been the case for Bayern though, who remain five points clear of second placed Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. With the DFB Pokal and Champions League still to play for, Guardiola could still depart the Allianz Arena as a treble-winning manager.
For City, though, their hopes of a trophy - at least domestically - are all but over. While they face a daunting two-legged affair with PSG in order to secure a place in the semi-finals of the Champions League, they come into the encounter as underdogs. Out of the FA Cup and 15 points behind league Premier League leaders Leicester City - albeit with a game in hand - Europe is all Pellegrini has to play for before his time at the club draws to a close, which seems a long shot.
As the Chilean’s stay winds down, it seems his time at City will end with a whimper, rather than a bang. Earlier in the campaign, it looked as though the Citizens would comfortably stroll to the league title, dispatching of all those before them with relative ease, yet their form for months now has left a lot to be desired given the quality of the personnel in the squad.
In the seven league games City have played since it was confirmed Guardiola would take over the Etihad reins, the Citizens have won just two. In that time, they have gained a total of seven points, as many as relegation candidates Sunderland (7). Granted, they may have secured Capital One Cup glory with a penalty shootout win over Liverpool, but the performances have been far from the standard expected of a club of City’s stature.
The current crop of players are indeed performing way below their potential as the season nears it climax. Of the nine losses City have succumbed to this season, four have come over their last six league outings. Such has been the downturn in form since deadline day that they now face the very real possibility of a campaign without Champions League football. With eight games still to play, Pellegrini’s side sit just one point above high-flying West Ham and city rivals Manchester United.
They’ve failed to outgun opponents with the same ruthless efficiency they showed earlier in the season, though that in part is down to a number of injury absentees, most notably that of big money summer arrival Kevin De Bruyne. Nevertheless, since it was announced that Guardiola would take charge, City have managed just seven goals in seven league games, four of which came against soon-to-be-relegated Aston Villa.
The number of shots per game the team has taken in that period has, as one might expect, dropped, with the figure before deadline day (17.5) notably higher than it is after (16.4). However, in the games they have managed to fire off more shots than their opponents - home meetings with Manchester United (26), Leicester, Villa (both 22) and Tottenham (21) - they have lost three of four. This points to an air of frustration engulfing the Etihad, but more pertinently, a lack of a cohesive game plan, particularly when taking into consideration that the average number of shots on target has fallen significantly from 6.1 to 3.7.
City boast the personnel to turn games in their favour in the blink of an eye. Sergio Aguero is widely regarded as one of the game’s best frontmen, David Silva can pry open an opposition defence in the blink of an eye and, while he can go missing in games from time to time, Yaya Toure is another who can swing a tie in City’s favour at the drop of a hat. Yet, it seems as though Pellegrini is relying heavily on moments of magic from the trio, among others, rather than formulating an approach to get the better of the opposition.
Defensively also they have been far from their best, with the nine goals conceded since the beginning of February one of the poorer returns in the Premier League. The lack of solidity and protection afforded to the backline means teams are now far from fearful of facing City, when previously a meeting with the Citizens was considered a daunting one. If anything, it further highlights a lack of proactiveness on Pellegrini's behalf, with the experienced manager failing to set his team up accordingly to match the opposition.
That's not to say all was running smoothly prior to the confirmation that Pellegrini would be leaving the club at the end of the season, with the warning signs already there, but he has not helped the club’s cause by adopting an auto-pilot approach in recent weeks. As a dead man walking, it’s little shock to see him prioritise Europe as a means of leaving City with one final winners' medal, but it’s a risky move to take, particularly given the level of opposition that stands between the Premier League side and Champions League glory.
He runs the risk of seeing City drop out of Europe’s elite competition altogether if he isn’t able to turn the club’s fortunes around, starting with the trip to Bournemouth this weekend. The international break could well have come at an opportune time for the club to take stock as they look to get back on track between now and the end of the season, but Pellegrini needs to rally his troops for one final push over the next eight league games in order to leave the Etihad on a high note. Whether he has the desire to do that under the circumstances remains to be seen.
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