Assessing the outright Europa League winner odds following quarter-final draw

As was the case in the earlier draw of the Europa League’s boastful older sibling, the Premier League teams will have been left in very different moods by the order in which Pierre van Hooijdonk pull ball from bowl.

Chelsea were drawn against the tournament’s unquestionable underdogs in Slavia Prague, while Arsenal face Maurizio Sarri’s former employers in the well-fancied Napoli. Elsewhere La Liga due Villarreal and Valencia go-head-to-head, while Frankfurt will face Benfica for the right to play the winner of the Blues quarter-final in the last four.

It’s little wonder that Chelsea’s odds have shortened to regain the trophy they lifted some six years ago then, and in truth a price ranging from 2.75 to 2.90 with the bookies seems fair given that they would avoid the victor of Napoli-Arsenal should they reach the semis. The Londoners have enjoyed their Europa League campaign too - offering light relief to a frustrating season in the league - winning nine and drawing the other of their ten games in the tournament.

Following his hat-trick against Dynamo Kyiv Olivier Giroud is now leading the race for the Golden Boot on nine goals, while the competition has offered the stage for Callum Hudson-Odoi to showcase an ability somewhat hidden away from domestic football. The teenager has still had to make do with just four starts - along with four sub appearances in the tournament - but despite that limited playing time he boasts the highest WhoScored.com rating of any Europa League player (7.84) courtesy of four goals, two assists and 30 successful dribbles.

As far as Arsenal are concerned they are still relatively short in the odds on paper, despite drifting following what was arguably the worst draw possible, having to travel to Naples in the second leg. The Gunners are priced as low as 4.50 to win the tournament with two leading bookmakers, while a highest price of 6.00 seems closer to a fair price but still not overly tempting.

Their Serie A opponents are favourites to progress after all, and as such represent a far more favourable price at 5.00 with some, which is close to double that of Chelsea. Carlo Ancelotti won’t have been best pleased with draw either, it should be said, but on home turf in particular they’ll be an extremely tough proposition for Unai Emery’s side to crack.

Juventus are the only away side to have won at the San Paolo in all competitions this season, where Napoli have won 15 of 20 matches and kept 12 clean sheets. Given Arsenal’s away record the Premier League outfit may not only need a home win but a comfortable one to progress, which seems relatively unlikely at this stage.

As far as the outside bets are concerned, Valencia are the next shortest odds after a draw against Villarreal, whose European record this season - unbeaten in ten matches - is a stark contrast to their domestic woes. A tie against a fellow La Liga side is far from ideal for the Yellow Submarine then, and Los Che are understandably strong favourites to reach the final four.

Marcelino’s men won 3-0 the last time the sides met in the league, following on from a goalless draw in the reverse fixture, and Villarreal’s struggles in front of goal could be the difference. Their leading league scorers are tied on just four - with Gerard Moreno matching that tally in Europe this season - and they continue to flirt with relegation from La Liga as a result.

Valencia aren’t always the most exciting of watches either but the aforementioned victory against their quarter-final opponents in January has sparked a 14-game unbeaten run in all competitions. Like Chelsea, their price - 9.00 with multiple bookmakers - seems a fair reflection of their chances to go the distance.

In terms of the best value, however, Frankfurt continue to be underestimated. The only team to have reached the quarters having knocked out two Champions League qualifiers in the knockout phase so far, they’re up against the only team to have done so once in Benfica. In fact, the Bundesliga side have upset the odds all campaign following what many saw as the ‘group of death’, coming through with a 100 per cent record despite facing both Lazio and Marseille.

They remain unbeaten having dispatched of strong opposition in Shakhtar and Inter and boast an attack line that is arguably the strongest in the tournament - at least on this season’s form. The highly sought-after Ante Rebic compliments a strike pairing of Sebastien Haller and Luka Jovic, who between them have 41 goals across the Bungesliga and Europa League.

Throw in the fact that the latter can face his parent club and prove a point against the Liga NOS side that seemingly wrote him off as a failure and I’d fancy Frankfurt to have the edge of a tie that the bookies can’t separate either way. A semi-final with Chelsea would await but Add Hutter’s side are used to playing the underdog and, at 12.00 with both Sky Bet and Unibet, are a great price to go all the way.