Match Focus: Spurs Out for Revenge at the Etihad

This weekend sees Tottenham afforded the chance to avenge their early season humiliation at the hands of Manchester City as Harry Redknapp takes his side to the Etihad Stadium. Spurs’ 5-1 home defeat at the hands of Roberto Mancini’s league leaders was, unsurprisingly, their heaviest defeat of the domestic campaign thus far and since that home hammering back in late August, Spurs have turned their season around.

 In the first of two articles focussing on “Super Sunday”, WhoScored takes a look at the previous encounter and analyses where the North London outfit need to improve upon if they are to stand any chance of success this time round…

Since the City defeat, Redknapp’s side have lost just once in the following nineteen fixtures and sit 5 points off the top of the table. A victory at the Etihad would take them to within 2 points of their hosts but, with City winning every one of their home games thus far, the visitors’ task is far from straightforward. Redknapp will be optimistic, though, and has every reason to be - his likely XI on Sunday looks far stronger than in the previous meeting, while Man City will be missing two of their star performers of the season.

For Spurs, there should be three crucial changes to the side that lost so heavily back in August, with the key factor being the introduction of Scott Parker in the heart of midfield. Parker arrived from West Ham just after the 5-1 loss and has been instrumental in their charge up the table. Sitting deep and making 4 tackles per game – the most of any Spurs player - in addition to 2.3 interceptions per game, his defensive output and reading of the game allows Spurs’ more creative types to weave their magic further up the field.

Niko Krancjar played alongside Luka Modric the last time round but was taken off at half-time to be replaced by Tom Huddlestone, such was his ineffectiveness at playing the holding midfield role. Huddlestone, however, lacks any real mobility and it was left to Modric to produce most of the defensive cover in midfield - he made 3 tackles and 4 interceptions before being subbed off on 66 minutes.

Kyle Walker has long since established himself as Redknapp’s first-choice right-back and will start instead of Vedran Corluka, while, up front, Jermain Defoe should start alongside Rafael Van der Vaart. Peter Crouch played there in the 5-1 defeat but has since moved to Stoke and Emmanuel Adebayor is unavailable to play against his parent club as part of his loan deal.

For City, the loss of skipper Vincent Kompany through suspension cannot be downplayed. The Belgian has made 2.3 tackles and 2.3 interceptions and has made more clearances (5.5) and blocked shots (0.9) per game than any City player this season. His likely replacement, Stefan Savic has made 0.5 tackles, 0.8 interceptions, 2.3 clearances and 0.6 blocked shots in comparison - the difference is hugely significant and offers plenty of hope for the visitors.

Yaya Toure is also unavailable - the Ivorian is off on international duty at the African Cup of Nations. Toure has made more passes than any City player per game (77.6), with a 90% accuracy. Factor in his 3 goals and 4 assists so far, from an average of 1.8 shots and 1.4 key passes, and his absence is hugely significant.

A look at each side’s stats from the previous game shows City just edged it on shots, by 22 to 21. Despite the 5-1 scoreline, then, Redknapp’s side still managed plenty of efforts but too many of them were wayward; Van der Vaart, Defoe and Gareth Bale had 12 shots between them, with just 4 on target, and none finding the net.  A much-improved shooting accuracy is required if Spurs are to produce an upset at the Etihad, though a look at City’s home stats suggest the visitors face an ominous task - City have conceded just 4 goals at home all season and have recorded clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 matches.

What was noticeable is that 50% (or 11) of City’s efforts came from inside the box. As a result, Edin Dzeko and Sergio Aguero grabbed all 5 goals between them, with the former scoring 4 times from an incredible 10 shots. Spurs centre-halves Michael Dawson and Younes Kaboul may have dominated in the air, winning 9 aerial duels between them, but were too often left exposed at the back as Spurs chased the game. The same pairings are likely to go head to head again this weekend but, like City, Spurs have been hugely impressive at the back over the last couple of months, picking up 6 clean sheets in their last eleven games and conceding just 6 goals.

Back in August, Spurs were no match for City’s slick passing game. The visitors had 59% of the play, with Yaya Toure making an outstanding 96 passes - again demonstrating his obvious importance and giving Redknapp more cause for optimism in his absence. Samir Nasri had a memorable debut, making 11 key passes and providing 3 assists but the former Arsenal man is way off form right now, and has produced a single assist in City’s last 14 games. 

With a few factors in their favour, then, Spurs will go into this one with plenty confidence. Despite Redknapp’s side having a better chance than many could have imagined at the start of the season, however, anything other than a home victory would nevertheless still constitute a shock result.