The Title Race: Have Chelsea already wrapped up the Premier League?
Eleven straight wins is ‘the stuff of champions’. Chelsea haven't dropped points in the league since September and have kept nine clean sheets in that time. In fact, 45% of their league points in 2016 have come during this incredible run (33/73). As far as markers go, they have set the bar incredibly high. Antonio Conte's side are worthy winter champions in the Premier League, but is it too early to call them champions-elect?
Recent history would certainly suggest not. The team that has led the Premier League on Christmas Day in five of the last six seasons has gone on to win the title. Moreover, of the seven sides that have put together a run of 10 or more straight wins in a single season, only on two occasions has that team failed to go on and win the title.
In all of those three instances Liverpool were the side that failed to convert their dominance into a Premier League trophy come May, and it is the Reds who are currently the closest challengers to Chelsea. Jurgen Klopp's side are six points behind Chelsea as it stands and are perhaps the side best equipped to overcome Chelsea's lead.
It may be hard to see any thing other than Chelsea winning the title at the moment, but it's worth noting that Liverpool have been in second place at Christmas on eight occasions since 1982 and have won the title in six of those seasons.
Despite such an impressive conversion rate, Liverpool haven't been in this position for 27 years and have actually blown a leading position at this stage of the season three times since then. Having failed to win a league title since 1990, there is certainly a mental hurdle for Liverpool to overcome – one they couldn’t when five points clear at the top of the league with just three games remaining in the 2013/14 campaign.
In order to not only overcome their league hoodoo, but also Chelsea, the Blues will have to chuck away their current six-point advantage. In doing so, Conte's side would be the first team since Liverpool in the 2008/09 campaign to throw away a gap as sizeable as their current advantage (Liverpool were seven points ahead). In fact, there have only been three other occasions in the Premier League era where a side has conceded a lead bigger than Chelsea’s at this stage of the season and lost the title.
As much as Conte has been keen to dismiss these kind of statistics, Chelsea have topped the table at Christmas in each of their previous four Premier League winning campaigns. Furthermore, the Blues only had more points at this stage of the season in one of those years (2005/06 – 46 points), while only one team in the last nine campaigns has recorded more than Chelsea’s current total of 43 points at Christmas. If Chelsea were to continue at their current pace of 2.5 points per game, the Blues would finish the season with the most points ever in a Premier League season (96).
What has been particularly impressive about Chelsea’s current run of form has been the blend of results. Their run, which began after Conte implemented a 3-4-3 formation, started off with comprehensive thrashings of the likes of Leicester, Manchester United and Everton, but has since been followed by hard fought, but deserved, 1-0 wins over West Brom, Sunderland and Crystal Palace in each of their last three matches. Liverpool’s 1-0 win over Everton in the Merseyside Derby on Monday was labelled as ‘the win of champions’, but Chelsea are already well versed in this type of victory.
They’ve dealt with any test that has come their way, which has even included wins from behind against title rivals Tottenham and Manchester City. The one obstacle, which Conte hasn’t needed to hurdle up until this point, is whether he has the squad to cope with a series of injuries of suspensions. Chelsea have used fewer players than any other team in the Premier League this season (20), but that will finally be put to the test on Boxing Day when they host Bournemouth.
Conte will be unable to call upon Diego Costa and N’Golo Kante, both suspended, as Chelsea look to move just one win behind Arsenal’s Premier League record of 13 straight wins in a single campaign (2001/02). Costa has arguably been the best player in the league this season – scoring more goals than any other player (13) – while Kante is integral to the success of their new system – only Idrissa Gueye (114) has completed more tackles and interceptions in England’s top tier this season than the Frenchman (99).
The fact that Chelsea are not in Europe and are already out of the League Cup has aided recovery and preparation, and that will continue to prove beneficial in the second half of the season. Not to mention the windfall from Oscar’s club record sale to China that Conte can use to strengthen his squad in January to ensure they can cope should injuries or suspensions occur in the future.
Conte is adamant that Tottenham and United, who are fifth and sixth respectively, are still in the Premier League title race, but it would require a dramatic six months for either side to realistically come back into contention, let alone win the title.
Only on one occasion has a side that has been sixth at Christmas managed to claw back the gap to top spot and finish as Champions, which should give United some hope, although that was in the 1997/98 campaign, and came at the expense of them winning their fourth league title in a row. Arsenal went into the Boxing Day fixtures 13 points behind United in 1997 – the same margin United are currently behind Chelsea – before a run of 10 straight wins from March to May catapulted the Gunners to their first Premier League title. Jose Mourinho's side are currently on a winning run of three in the league, but haven't sustained a run of Arsenal's length since the 2008/09 campaign.
For Tottenham to catch Chelsea it would mean becoming the first side since United in 1996/97 to come from fifth at Christmas to finishing first in May, although the Red Devils were only seven points behind Liverpool in that year, rather than Spurs’ current 10-point deficit.
A six-point swing is certainly manageable for any of the current top six but recent history is firmly stacked in Chelsea’s favour. While it may well be too early to call Chelsea champions-elect, you sense they could start putting champagne on ice should they come through back-to-back league fixtures against Liverpool and Arsenal unbeaten at the end of next month.
