Messi vs Ronaldo - Can Ron Rule Out a Messi Night in Madrid?
It's that time of year again. El Clasico is upon us and in turn the prospect of perhaps the greatest match-up in club football. Amongst their ranks the two sides have some of the world's greatest players, though two undoubtedly shine out above the rest, with Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo again contesting the FIFA Ballon d'Or award this year.
While the mouth-watering clash always seems to promise the greatest of battles between the duo - though indirectly on the pitch of course - there is no doubt that the mercurial Messi tends to come out on top. WhoScored analyses the Argentinean's dominance in recent matches at the Bernabeu and investigates whether there could be a change in tides this time around, with Ronaldo's home form significantly trumping Messi's record on his travels this term.
Messi vs Ronaldo - Recent Bernabeu Battles
A look at the games in which the prolific pair have come head-to-head at the Bernabeu since Ronaldo's arrival in Madrid shows that Messi has had the upper hand. In 4 matches in total, Messi has netted 5 goals to Ronaldo's 1, with the former United-man's strike coming from the penalty spot.
When looking at the in-depth stats from the last 3 matches at Real's home (excluding the Spanish Super Cup), the 24-year-old's obvious excellence becomes even more apparent. With 4 goals over the 3, Messi has had just 3.66 shots per game, hitting the target with a superb 73% accuracy. He has also completed 1.67 key passes and 5.33 dribbles per game on average, to earn a rating of 8.73 over the meetings.
In comparison, Ronaldo's 1 goal has come from a far greater 6.33 shots per game, with his accuracy way down on Messi's at a disappointing 42%. Just 1 key pass over the course of the 3 matches and a mere 7 successful dribbles compared to Messi's 16 has left the Portugal international with a decent, if unspectacular average rating of 7.1 from WhoScored.
Messi's Away Form a Cause for Madrid Merriment
A reason for hope for Mourinho's side lays in Lionel Messi's somewhat abject performances away from the Nou Camp this season. In front of his home fans, the two time World Player of the Year has been all but unstoppable. In 9 league appearances he has netted 16 times and assisted a further 5.
Attempting 6.4 shots per game, he scores with every 3.63 and has also created 25 chances for teammates (2.8 per game). Completing 6.9 dribbles per game to boot, the Argentine has a quite remarkable WhoScored average rating of 9.58 in home matches. However, all this changes on his travels.
Just 1 goal from 6 appearances (5 starts) will be a concern for Guardiola as his side hit the road again. Still attempting a substantial 4.2 shots per game, Messi has scored just once from 25 attempts in total, and lacks the clinical touch he has in front of his home fans. Still impressive figures of 2.2 and 3.5 for key passes and dribbles respectively, Messi's average rating of 7.48 is far from disappointing but is a significantly down - by 2.10 - on his home performances.
Cristiano Ronaldo's comparative stats when playing at home or away have a far less substantial difference between them, though he is still noticeably hot at home right now. Six appearances have heralded 9 goals and 4 assists despite, somewhat surprisingly, taking fewer shots per game at home (5.3 to 6.9). These figures have led him to a goal every 3.56 shots at home compared to 6.88 away and are the key contributors to an average rating variation of 9.00 (home) to 8.12 (away).
Head-to-Head Battles in Madrid's Favour
Playing on the left hand side of a three-pronged Madrid attack, Ronaldo is likely to come up against Dani Alves on the Barca right - despite suggestions that Guardiola may dare to do the unthinkable and play 3 at the back! A look at the rival duos head -to-head stats indicate that the Madrid-man may well get more joy than Messi on the night.
While Ronaldo fires in 6.2 shots per game on average, Alves has made just 1 block all season, and may need to close down the Portuguese at every opportunity to nullify his impact. The Brazilian defender does have decent figures when it comes to interceptions (1.9) and tackles (3.1) per game, which should help counter Ronaldo's 1.8 key passes and the fact that the winger is dispossessed 2.1 times a match on average.
With Madrid playing as a unit far more successfully thus far this season, rather than a team of individuals, Ronaldo has only completed 1.4 dribbles per game, but is up against a full-back who is dribbled past more often per game than any other Barca player bar Fabregas (0.6).
While Alves readies himself for the torrid test of containing the rapid Ronaldo, Sergio Ramos may well be preparing to monitor Messi, and the Spaniard's performances and figures at centre-back will certainly test the Argentine's genius. With 0.8 blocks per game, 2.7 interceptions per game and having been dribbled past just 0.2 times a match, Ramos' stats are markedly improved on Alves' and Messi will need to bring his home form with him, as he invariably does in El Clasico matches.
Despite impressive scores from his Spanish opponent, Messi's tally of 5.5 for shots and successful dribbles per game would strike fear into any defender and will prove the ultimate test of Ramos' undeniable credentials.
While you wouldn't bet against Lionel Messi to prove to be the match-winner in this fierce match-up, form suggests that Madrid may finally have what it takes to topple their Catalan rivals, and Mourinho will be hoping that Messi has another off day on the road, rather than continuing his rampant record in this historic clash.
