About 20 years ago, I was drinking in a pub in West Jesmond when I was accosted at the bar by a grey-haired, grey-stubbled man who worked on the Hoppings, an annual fair that was held on the Town Moor in Newcastle each year. Learning I was from Sunderland, he sucked through the gaps in his teeth and shook his head slowly. "Sunderland," he said, "is what happened when they kicked the miserable people out of Newcastle."
It may not be entirely fair, but it's certainly true that optimism doesn't come easily to Wearside. Sunderland may have dragged themselves from the bottom of the table to fourteenth in a month, they may have reached their first Cup final in 22 years and beaten Newcastle for the third time in a row for the first time in 91, but there is little sense of triumphalism. There is a widespread acknowledgement that things have improved dramatically under Gus Poyet, but the thought that a season that began so grimly could end up being Sunderland's most successful in decades remains perverse. Yet the fact is that having lost seven of their first eight league games, Sunderland have lost just one of their last nine, while seeing off Chelsea and Manchester United in the Capital One Cup, and reaching the fifth round of the FA Cup.
In part, it should be acknowledged, the improvement is down to the fixture list. After playing Fulham - and losing slightly unfortunately - on the opening day of the season, Sunderland faced Newcastle and all the likely top seven bar Everton in their next seven home games. There was no respite and as the defeats mounted and confidence dipped; what is happening now is the reverse: Sunderland's last four home games have been against Norwich, Aston Villa, Southampton and Stoke, and the four after that will be against Hull, West Brom, Crystal Palace and West Ham.
But there has also been a clear change in approach that is slowly paying dividends. Essentially, Sunderland's season can be divided into three sections: the opening seven leagues games under Paolo Di Canio and then Kevin Ball, from which they took one point, the first eight games under Poyet from which they took seven points, and the last nine games, from which they've taken 16 points.
Under Di Canio and Ball, Sunderland averaged 43.1% possession per game and completed 76.4% of their passes, 14.6% of which were long. It took time for Poyet to implement his more possession-based strategy, and in the first seven league games under him, Sunderland's average possession actually dipped slightly, to 42.8%, although pass completion saw a slight rise to 77%. What's really striking, though, is what's happened since the defeat to Tottenham that has been striking. In that third phase of the season, pass completion has gone up to 80.7% and possession to 50.9%. A slightly lower proportion (13.8%) of passes in those games were long.
Sunderland's greater calmness in possession was clear in Saturday's derby against Newcastle, particularly as Newcastle tried to raise the tempo in the second half, and Sunderland again and again stole possession and constructed patient counter-attacks. That greater composure has a knock-on effect elsewhere, notably in the shot stats. In the first eight games under Poyet, shots per game went down from 13.3 to 8.6, but that figure has risen to 15.6; even more significant is shots on target, which in part reflects the confidence and form of those taking the shots, but also gives an indication of the quality of chance being created.
Central to their ball retention is Ki Sung-Yeung, who completes 91.3% of his passes (Jack Colback's 87.4% completion rate is also worthy of note) and averages 1.2 key-passes per game. The South Korean, on loan from Swansea, doesn't just keep the ball, though; he's also adept at regaining it, making 1.9 tackles per game and 0.8 interceptions.
The only concerning stat is chances conceded, which is at 17.2 per game over the last nine matches, fewer than the early games under Poyet, but significantly more than the 13.2 conceded under Di Canio and Ball. With Vito Mannone in fine form, though - his WhoScored rating is 7.24 as opposed to the 6.32 Kieren Westwood averaged earlier in the season - that hasn't translated into goals conceded: Sunderland have let in just six in their last nine. In the long term, it could become a concern, but for now, every other indicator, and Sunderland's form, is on the up. Slowly, hope is dawning on Wearside.
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