Will Seattle continue dominance over Toronto in Sunday's MLS Cup final?

For a season that lacked a defining storyline there are no shortage of plots and narratives to unpick ahead of Saturday’s MLS Cup final. Toronto FC and the Seattle Sounders will meet in North American football’s showpiece season decider with both clubs looking to cross a rather significant threshold. 

Both TFC and Seattle can win their first MLS Cup at BMO Field this weekend and there are parallels between the two clubs and how they made it this far. Greg Vanney and Brian Schmetzer’s sides are similarly dependant on attack over defence, riding the crest of a late season charge all the way into the play-offs and to the final.  

But who are the favourites? Who is most likely to shake off the monkey that has weighed them down ever as long as they have both been MLS franchises? There’s a lot on the line this weekend and so the open, enthralling goal-fest so many are expecting might not come to fruition. Pressure situations aren’t usually conducive to the most entertaining of affairs. 

Nonetheless, the odds are perceived to be in Toronto FC’s favour, being the home side who enjoyed a better regular season. Over 2016 they have been the more consistent side, even if the Sounders have momentum on their side. They also have the better players, at least on the basis of stature and reputation. 

That, in fact, has been a catalyst for the success Toronto FC have enjoyed in 2016. The Canadian club have attempted to position themselves as a marquee franchise for quite some time, luring big names like Jermain Defoe, Michael Bradley, Jozy Altidore and of course Sebastian Giovinco, but this season has for the first time seen them truly deliver on the pitch. 

David Villa might have this week picked up the MLS MVP award for this year, but Giovinco is quite simply the best player in the league. In fact, he is the best player in the history of the league. The Italian notched 21 goals and 16 assists from his 33 appearances, including the playoffs, this season, leading MLS in the shots per game column (6.3). Giovinco is the attacking hub around which Toronto FC revolve. Without him the entire system would fall apart. Without him TFC wouldn’t have their difference-maker. 

That’s not to say there aren’t others who can harm the Sounders on Saturday. Altidore, for instance, was in exceptional form in the whirlwind 5-2 Eastern Conference final second leg against the Montreal Impact last week, scoring and assisting. In fact, Altidore has been a driving force for TFC over the course of their playoff run, scoring in every game (five in five) and contributing three assists as well. It’s not just Giovinco the Sounders will need to devise a plan for to keep the hosts at bay. 

On the basis of possession, the Seattle Sounders will more than hold their own at BMO Field on Saturday. In fact, Schmetzer’s side have average a higher share of possession than their MLS Cup final opponents this season, boasting 51.6% of the ball compared to Toronto FC’s 50.2%. Home advantage might well eliminate that admittedly small difference, but it’s unlikely the visitors will be dominated.  

Seattle will create opportunities, averaging 12.4 shots on goal per game. At least a few of those opportunities will likely fall to Jordan Morris, MLS’s rookie of the year. The 22-year-old has scored 14 goals over the course of his first season as a professional, including seven match-winners - a MLS record as a rookie.  

Given his scoring statistics, it’s remarkable that Morris averages only two shots on goal per game. Only Clint Dempsey (3.8) - who has been ruled out for the past few weeks with a heart problem - and Nicolas Lodeiro (2.6) have averaged more shots on goal per game this season of all Sounders players. Morris’ ruthlessness in front of goal could prove decisive on Saturday. 

The midfield battle will be an interesting one to watch, with Bradley and Osvaldo Alonso set go to toe-to-toe in the centre of the pitch. Both TFC and Seattle are reliant on their midfield anchors, with the Sounders in particular leaning heavily on the structural importance of their Cuban-born stalwart.  

Alonso averages 3.8 tackles per game, as well as 2.2 interceptions. Bradley’s statistics hold rather well in comparison, with the US international averaging 3.3 tackles per game and 2.3 interceptions. Without these two, their respective teams wouldn’t be able to play in the manner they do. The tussle between them in midfield could determine which way the MLS Cup final swings. 

The three-man defence Vanney opted for in last week’s conference final win over Montreal could be reused as Toronto FC look to gain the upper hand in the centre of the pitch. Seattle will likely play in the 4-2-3-1 shape that has served them so well over the past few weeks and months. 

Saturday's match will be an encounter between two sides who have used the MLS playoff format to their advantage. These two sides aren’t necessarily the two best sides in North American, but they will provide the defining contest. Both TFC and the Sounders have their sights set on the same prize and similar vindication.