Contrasting results in midweek mean just a solitary point separates Manchester City and Arsenal coming into the weekend’s fixtures. In the final round of games before Christmas, both teams will hope to enjoy the festivities with a vital three points on Sunday. With Chelsea six points ahead of Arsenal and seven ahead of City coming into the match up at the Etihad Stadium, a victory for either side would go a long way to knocking the other out of the Premier League title race, particularly if the Blues secure a win at Crystal Palace in Saturday’s early kick off.
Consequently, this is a match neither team will want to lose, but Arsenal certainly have what it takes to win. The Gunners are unbeaten in their last four league meetings with City and despite a defeat at Everton on Tuesday night, they are in the better form. Pep Guardiola’s side have won just five of their last 16 competitive outings, which has seen them fall behind.
Failure to sufficiently strengthen the defence has proven to be Guardiola’s undoing on a number of occasions this season, with his side committing eight errors that have led to an opposition shot, one of the worst returns in the league. A 2-0 home win over Watford will have boosted morale, but the City backline will be tested on Sunday. Injuries to Vincent Kompany and Ilkay Gundogan, along with Fernandinho’s suspension should have the hosts fretting over their chances of securing a crucial three points at the weekend.
The absences, though, are expected to have the visitors' star attacking duo Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of facing a questionable City backline. Alexis is the Premier League’s second highest rated player with a rating of 7.92 coming into the tie, while Ozil has gained a respectable 7.25 this term. The understanding between the pair has contributed to the Gunners’ strong start to the season with only Liverpool (40) scoring more league goals than Arsenal (37) at the time of writing.
Alexis to Ozil is the joint-best assist to goalscorer combination in the Premier League this season, with the former setting up four of the latter’s 5 league goals. Ozil is now only two goals shy from his most prolific campaign for Arsenal, while Alexis has played more key passes from open play (42) than any other top flight player. Indeed the pair have what it takes to link up once more to put the City defence to the sword.
Given the demand for City defenders to play higher up the pitch, there is plenty of space for the pair to exploit in the final third. Alexis has made a career from darting runs across the attacking third and if Ozil can then read the runs his teammate makes, then the Chilean star can add to his five Premier League assists this season, particularly if they link up effectively once more. Moreover, only four players have made more key passes than Ozil (37) this term, while no player has scored more goals than Alexis (12) in the Premier League this season.
Ozil may have struggled to recreate his best creative form this term, but he is still widely considered one of the best innovators in football and Sunday is as good a time as any for him to add to his two league assists this season. City’s beleaguered backline are leaking goals at an alarming rate, with the clean sheet attained against Watford only their third in the Premier League this season. It’s a worrying return for a title hunting team and one that has a mistake in them.
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Leicester last weekend proved that, if you readily press the City backline, they can be forced into errors and, in Alexis and Ozil, Arsene Wenger has the ideal attacking pair prepared to pressure the City defence. Only Eden Hazard (17) has won possession in the attacking third more times than Ozil and Alexis (both 16) in the Premier League this season. The German’s work off the ball has been criticised in the past, but he’s working hard when Arsenal aren’t in possession to help win the ball for his side and in turn create chances for his teammates.
City have developed a statistically calculated WhoScored weakness of ‘avoiding individual errors’ and if their lack of concentration is exposed by Arsenal, it could be a long after for Guardiola’s side at the Etihad Stadium. The Gunners will be keen to atone for their negative result at Goodison Park in midweek and should Alexis and Ozil play to their best ability once more at the Etihad Stadium, Arsenal have a much stronger chance of coming away from Manchester with a positive result for a third successive season.
