Statistical Analysis: Who is the most consistent of the Premier League's top players?

There’s no doubt that there have been some star performers in the Premier League as attentions begin to turn to the PFA Player of the Year debate. There are two clear front runners with the bookies, with Kevin De Bruyne and Mohamed Salah streaks ahead of the competition in the odds.

Rather than merely outright rating this season, we wanted to assess the consistency of each of the top players in England’s top-flight thus far, with some interesting results from our study.

To get a greater gauge of performance levels, ratings from appearances as a substitute have been excluded, plotting the timeline of each of the top ten players in terms of WhoScored.com match ratings and the average rating over the course of the season.

In theory, the more consistent players should have fewer spikes in their ratings graphs (below) and a closer plot of match ratings (feint line) relative to their average (dotted line).

With that in mind the top scorers in the league are more likely to be prone to drastic differences in ratings from game-to-game, more dependent on those goals to score highly given an otherwise diminished influence in general play than an outfielder who will see more of the ball.

It’s clear from the graphs of both Sergio Aguero and, in particular, Harry Kane that that is the case. The majority of each player’s match ratings are either significantly higher or lower than their average over the season, with Kane securing the most ratings below a 7 of the players analysed (eight).

Aguero, meanwhile, has secured five ratings between a score of 8 and 9, while Mohamed Salah has achieved a rating within that range 11 times. The Egyptian has been incredibly consistent in that regard, and while he’s less likely to secure a perfect ten than the Argentine - for example - the Liverpool star has only scored lower than seven in five of 28 starts (17.9%).

De Bruyne has been slightly less consistent of late despite still so rarely putting a foot wrong, with a tail off in form since the turn of the year. Indeed, of his last 12 match ratings, just three have registered above his average for the campaign, even though most have ended in perfectly respectable scores.

Instead, the most consistent performer of all of those studied is unquestionably David Silva. He may be 32 but this campaign certainly ranks among the best of an outstanding eight seasons at Manchester City. Indeed, from 23 league starts the Spaniard’s rating has dropped below seven just twice, with 82.6% of his match scores placing between 7 and 9.

Percentage of WhoScored.com ratings >7

David Silva - 91.3%
Kevin De Bruyne - 83.3%
Mohamed Salah - 82.1%
Sergio Aguero - 81.8%
Eden Hazard - 81.8%
Raheem Sterling - 77.3%
Roberto Firmino - 74.1%
Paul Pogba - 72.2%
Harry Kane - 71.4%
Leroy Sane - 70%

Simply put, Pep Guardiola knows exactly what he will get from David Silva more than any other player in his ranks.

So what of what some would have you believe is a disastrous season from Paul Pogba? Well, it’s not disastrous at all for a start, and it’s only really over the last two months that the Frenchman has began to falter. Two poor showings in starts against Tottenham and Newcastle either side of being dropped against Huddersfield have disproportionately skewed the feelings of most on a campaign that, until that point, had actually been pretty consistent from the midfielder.

There’s no denying his form has dipped, but so much is expected of the 25-year-old given the nature of his return to Old Trafford that two disappointing displays in a row are jumped on with unnecessary glee. He’s not up there with the likes of Silva in terms of consistency, but that’s not news to anyone.

The City playmaker has been in a league of his own at times during his time in the Premier League, yet still doesn’t get the accolades he deserves. As far as consistency is concerned this season, there has been no one better.