Cole Palmer Expected Goals Stats: Chelsea star among Premier League's most efficient forwards
As we enter the October international break, we’re taking a look back at the first seven rounds of the Premier League season.
Here, we run through the top 10 players overperforming their Expected Goals figure by the largest margins. To be considered, players must have attempted at least 10 shots.
Included in our top 10 are players from Wolves, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Ipswich, Manchester City, Everton and Brentford.
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10. Matheus Cunha (Wolves) - 1.2xG overperformance
Wolves attacker Matheus Cunha comes in at 10th, having overperformed his Expected Goals figure by 1.2 so far this season. The Brazilian has three goals to his name when, given the chances he has been presented, he should have less than two.
9. Noni Madueke (Chelsea) - 1.3xG overperformance
After only seven matches, Chelsea winger Noni Madueke is just a goal away from equalling his league tally from last season, with four goals so far. The England international has reached that figure while accumulating 2.7xG, resulting in an overperformance of 1.3.
8. Jhon Duran (Aston Villa) - 1.5xG overperformance
Despite not yet starting a league match this season, Aston Villa hitman Jhon Duran has notched four goals, making a name for himself as the Premier League’s ultimate super sub. The 20-year-old’s four goals have come from 2.5xG, meaning he has overperformed by 1.5 goals.
7. Luis Diaz (Liverpool) - 1.5xG overperformance
Liverpool attacker Luis Diaz has looked like a player reborn under Arne Slot so far this season, seemingly going up a level - particularly in front of goal. The 27-year-old has five goals to his name inside seven league matches, overperforming his 3.5xG by 1.5 goals.
6. Liam Delap (Ipswich) - 1.8xG overperformance
In his first Premier League season, 21-year-old Liam Delap has impressed leading the line for newly-promoted Ipswich Town. The England under-21 international has netted four goals from an xG of just 2.2, overperforming by 1.8 goals.
5. Cole Palmer (Chelsea) - 2xG overperformance
Chelsea star Cole Palmer has started the new Premier League season just as he ended the last, registering six goals and five assists through the opening seven weeks of the campaign. The 22-year-old’s six goals have come from just 4xG, meaning he has scored two goals more than expected at this stage.
4. Mateo Kovacic (Manchester City) - 2.4xG overperformance
Croatian midfielder Mateo Kovacic scored just one goal in his debut season at Manchester City, but already has three to his name after seven matches this time around. The former Chelsea man bagged a brace in Saturday’s win over Fulham, with those strikes contributing to his xG overperformance of 2.4 so far.
3. Dwight McNeil (Everton) - 2.5xG overperformance
Dwight McNeil accounts for three of Everton’s seven league goals so far this season, finding the net in games against Aston Villa and Crystal Palace. Given the chances he has been presented, the 24-year-old, remarkably, would not have been expected to have scored a single goal yet, given his 0.5xG.
2. Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford) - 3xG overperformance
Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo is another player to have started the new season in impressive form, scoring six goals in seven matches, including one in each of his last three. Mbeumo’s six strikes have come from just 3xG, meaning he has scored three goals more than expected so far.
1. Erling Haaland (Manchester City) - 3.9xG overperformance
It should come as no surprise that the Premier League’s top goalscorer also leads the way for xG overperformance so far. Manchester City’s Erling Haaland has 10 goals to his name from an xG of just over six. Surprisingly, the Norwegian ended the 2023/24 campaign with an underperformance of 3.9xG; he is certainly making amends this time around.
