Dortmund vs Bayern: Where the Champions League Final will be Won and Lost
Bayern Munich fans mockingly sang "football's coming home" as they watched their side cruise to a 3-1 victory at the Emirates Stadium in the second round of this season's Champions League. Dortmund fans may well join them this weekend when the two sides meet at the same location (albeit at a rebuilt stadium) that Germany last won the European Championship in 1996. A German side will win the Champions League at Wembley this year, and though Bayern have been utterly dominant in domestic football this term, recent meetings suggest it won't quite be so easy for them come Saturday night.
Bayern won the Bundesliga title at the earliest stage it has ever been won and ended the season 25 points clear of their nearest challengers, Dortmund, having dropped points only 5 times all season. They also have the DFB Pokal Final to look forward to after this Saturday's match, and have a good chance of securing an historic treble in Jupp Heynckes' final season in charge. Arguably their most impressive statistic so far is that they have lost only 3 of their 52 competitive games all season, including 4 games without a loss against Jurgen Klopp's Dortmund.
Of those 4 matches, both Bundesliga games ended in 1-1 stalemates while Bayern edged the other 2 matches by the odd goal. The Bavarians did, however, have the advantage of playing on home soil in both their 1-0 DFB Pokal victory in February and the 2-1 win in the German Super Cup back in August. Over the course of the previous 2 seasons, though, Dortmund overcame Bayern on all 5 occasions on their way to consecutive league titles and DFB Pokal victory in 2011/12. While the shift in power has been marked this season, Dortmund are still capable of beating the team they have been outshone by for the most part this term.
Mario Götze and Toni Kroos were the goalscorers when the sides drew at the Allianz Arena earlier in the season, and with both ruled out of the upcoming clash the respective sides will have to turn to other stars for inspiration if they are to triumph. In that match, there was a huge focus down the right for both sides, with Bayern having 46% of their attacking touches down that flank and Dortmund 52%. When the sides next met, each team, respectively, had 39% and 33% of their touches going forwards on the right. There was an obvious change in tack from both managers, with the wingers playing narrowly and aiming to attack more through central areas, Arjen Robben profiting with the only goal of the game. This time around, without Kroos and Götze, both of whom play centrally, the wings could be all the more important.
Franck Ribery will play on the Bayern left as per usual, and he will go head to head with the impressive, marauding Borussia Dortmund right-back Lukasz Piszczek. The Frenchman has missed the last two clashes between the teams, but picked up a WhoScored man of the match award the last time he faced Jurgen Klopp's side, with a rating of 8.7. Ribery was a constant threat in that match, dribbling past an opponent on 10 occasions, whilst also having 3 shots and making 2 key passes. With 84 touches, he was more involved than any other player, and in the process he managed to reduce Piszczek to a more peripheral role than he might usually play.
A look at the opponents' heat maps from Champions League games this season show just how much work the Polish full-back does, with his touches coming in all positions up and down the touchline. However, with 8 assists in 28 league appearances this season and only 1 assist in 11 European games, his attacking threat is clearly stifled somewhat by Champions League quality wingers. That is exactly what he will face on Saturday, and Ribery is likely to do his utmost to pin Piszczek back for the most part. The Bayern winger too has a much less impressive attacking record in Europe this season, with only 3 goals or assists in 11 appearances, compared to 24 in 27 Bundesliga games. Against German opposition this weekend, Ribery could prosper.
On the other wing, Arjen Robben has been reaping the benefits of Kroos's injury, starting the vast majority of Bayern's recent matches with Muller playing centrally, and the Dutchman will face up against Marcel Schmelzer at Wembley. Robben was outstanding in the first leg against Barcelona, not only scoring his side's third goal but also helping out defensively, with 4 tackles and 2 interceptions on his way to a WhoScored rating of 9 out of 10. Robben is renowned for being selfish in his play all too often, preferring to cut in onto his left foot and shoot more often than going down the line onto his right. That might well be beneficial in this game, though, with Robben averaging 4.1 shots per game in this season's Champions League and Schmelzer only blocking 0.3 shots per game. Mats Hummels, in the left centre-back role, will need to help his left-back out, but Robben will undoubtedly get chances on Saturday and Roman Weidenfeller will need to be on his toes between the posts.
At the other end of the pitch, there will be a battle of raw pace as Jakub Blaszczykowski goes up against Bayern's David Alaba. While the winger has dribbled past an opponent on average 1.2 times per game in Europe this season, the Austrian full-back has only been dribbled past 0.5 times per game - a total of just 5 times in 10 appearances - whilst also making 2.1 tackles per game. His athleticism is a huge asset to his game, though Blaszczykowski may be one winger able to outrun him in a straight foot race. From the Pole's heat map, it is clear to see that he does drift in field, and with Alaba's attacking ability - 2 goals and 2 assists in the Champions League - he could take advantage, overloading the left side and creating opportunities for Ribery to get in behind.
Meanwhile, it will be star striker Robert Lewandowski who is the main worry for the Bayern defence; only Cristiano Ronaldo (12) has scored more goals in European competition this season than Dortmund's talisman, who hit 4 of his 10 goals in the first leg win over Real Madrid. However, while he has scored 21 goals in his last 23 appearances, he has only netted once in his last 5 matches, going off the boil somewhat in recent weeks. Nonetheless, that is not to say he should be in any way underestimated. He is lethal in front of goal, scoring 21.7% of his chances in the Champions League this season, and could well add to his goal haul against a Bayern defence that shipped 3 goals at Gladbach last week.
There will be a vast array of talent on show in London on Saturday night, as the world watches Germany's giants vie for Europe's premier trophy. The absences of Kroos and Götze will not detract from the spectacle despite what their respective teams will lose without them. In Klopp and Heynckes, we have two of the best current managers in football going head to head, and the match their teams produce should live up to the billing.
