Team Focus: What Should Joe Kinnear Look to Improve at Newcastle?
The return of Joe Kinnear to St James' Park is hardly likely to send the Newcastle faithful into the kind of jittery excitement that can be aroused in a fan by the second coming of a former manager. Chelsea fans have almost been waiting for Jose Mourinho to go back to Stamford Bridge since the day he left, but Kinnear's employment for a second stint at the club - this time as Director of Football - will be rather less welcomed, and is also much less understandable.
The former Wimbledon, Luton, Nottingham Forest and Magpies boss has been away from the game for 4 years after a far from glittering career in management, though he aims to improve the current crop of players at Alan Pardew's disposal. Given that Graham Carr, Newcastle's chief scout has been doing a decent job of recommending talent - primarily from Ligue 1 - it is questionable as to how and where Kinnear will fit in. The 'director of football' role has caused problems within English football before, where managers are unable to get to grips with another ego muscling in on their turf, trying to help out but ultimately making signings that he disagrees with.
However, Alan Pardew's current strategy is starting to stagnate, and while change was necessary, owner Mike Ashley was hardly likely to call time on Pardew's reign given that he is less than 9 months into an 8 year contract. A top 5 season in 2011/12 was followed up with a bottom 5 finish this term, and their flirting with relegation became all too worrying for those in charge of the club. But which areas exactly should Kinnear look to improve, if he is fulfil his claim that he will 'make Newcastle far better than they are now'?
For a start, the squad needs more depth. With the requirements of a trip to the Europa League quarter finals this season, Newcastle's squad was stretched to the bare bones, with no fewer than 8 of the 25 members of their squad you could call 'first team players' missing at least a third of the season through injury or suspension. Amongst those were key contributors in the season they achieved a 5th placed finish, including Hatem Ben Arfa, Fabricio Coloccini, Cheik Tiote, Yohan Cabaye and Tim Krul, though injuries can only be blamed so much and a club of Newcastle's wealth should be better prepared for such an eventuality.
What is most instantly noticeable in comparing Newcastle's last season to this was the difference in goal tallies. In the Premier League in 2011/12 they scored 56 times and shipped 51, compared to respective values of 45 and 68 this term. The 11 goal dip in goals scored should be partly attributed to Demba Ba's departure for Chelsea in January as well as Papiss Demba Cisse's form, or lack thereof. The latter of the Senegalese duo scored just 8 goals in 36 league appearances this season after netting 13 in 14 last term, and his side have suffered as a result. Cisse converted just 9.3% of his chances this season, compared to 33.3% last term, whilst also netting just 5 of the 23 clear cut chances (21.7%) that fell his way in 2012/13 compared to 8 out of 16 (50%) the season before.
The weight of expectation that fell on him after last season's showing - as well as an over reliance for goals after Ba left - ended up detrimental to his performances. There was little stopping Ba leaving for then Champions of Europe Chelsea, and though Moussa Sissoko - temporarily at least - proved he source of goals after his January arrival from Toulouse, Newcastle are now essentially without another viable option up from. (No, Shola Ameobi is not a viable option.)
Given Carr's recent preference for bringing in players from Ligue 1, plenty of options are quickly obvious. In his first season in France, Nice's Dario Cvitanich finished the season behind only superstar Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the goalscoring charts, netting 19 times from just 58 attempts. His 32.8% conversion rate was the best in Europe's top 5 leagues of players to score at least 15 goals, ahead of the likes of Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski and Falcao, all of whom rank in the top 10. Of course Cvitanich would be much more sought after was he as good as these players in all parts of his game, but finishing is his speciality and he could provide competition the flagging Cisse desperately needs. That he has played for 4 different teams in the last 4 seasons goes to show that he has been open to moving clubs in the past and he could well be persuaded to ditch Nice this summer, should the Magpies come calling.
The creativity of the team has not been particularly lacking. Newcastle had more shots this season (533) than they did last (489) and created more clear cut chances as well (45 compared to 33). Hatem Ben Arfa missed half the season and while there is little point relying on a player of his propensity to fall foul of injury, the likes of Gutierrez, Sissoko and Gouffran are ample creative back up.
In central midfield, though, Newcastle have a problem. Cabaye has had his fair share of personal problems over the season they caused his performance level to drop. Further, if the papers are to be believed, he could be heading back to France this summer. Whilst he adds to the creative spark of the side and his delivery from a set piece is also useful, his job without the ball is somewhat undervalued. Sitting in front of the back four, Cabaye breaks up play and distributes it forward for teammates to begin an attack of their own. That he missed a chunk of the season played a part in Newcastle's poor performance. In the Premier League, his side conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game with him in the starting lineup this season compared to 2.15 without him, and his departure could hit them hard. Whether or not he leaves, though, Vurnon Anita and James Perch are not good enough to deputise in that position and more back up is needed.
In terms of possible additions to the squad, the French top flight offers plenty of central midfield quality. Etienne Capoue has long been linked with a move to England and while he may aim higher than Newcastle, they have good links with Toulouse. Making a total of 5 tackles and interceptions per game, he makes slightly fewer than Cabaye (5.2), while their respective pass accuracies (80.8% compared to Cabaye's 79.5%) are remarkably similar. What is more, of each player's 4 statistically calculated WhoScored 'styles of play', 3 are shared by both players, as can be seen in the image below.
In defence, Newcastle have managed to hold on to want-away captain Fabricio Coloccini - for the time being at least - though the addition of Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa has not been as successful a Ligue 1 import as the likes of Cabaye and Debuchy. The Magpies conceded roughly the same number of goals per game with Mbiwa in the side (1.82) compared to without him (1.78), whilst also winning marginally less often with him (27.3%) than without (29.6%). He has not been the game-changing signing that many hoped he would be, with the Newcastle defence equally as shaky since his arrival. He is only young and should grow into the role, but this may be another area that could need improvement.
Of course, for a club like Newcastle, 5th-bottom is simply not good enough, and Joe Kinnear has been brought in to try and rectify what could be viewed as a rather ominous-looking situation. However, the Magpies have a great reputation and significant financial backing which should allow them to strengthen in the necessary areas. What remains to be seen, though, is whether Kinnear can keep to his word and make the right signings.
