Betting on the biggest game in Europe all season - Bayern vs Dortmund

It’s difficult to overstate just how huge today’s Klassiker between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund is in the race for the Bundesliga title.

After Bayern’s unexpected slip up against Freiburg last time out the pendulum has perhaps not quite swung back in their rivals favour just yet - given this match will be played at the Allianz - but the result is almost certain to have a huge bearing on which team lifts the shield.

Dortmund currently sit two points clear of the reigning champions at the top of the pile, knowing that if they can spring an upset away from home the title will be in touching distance. Lucien Favre’s side have the easier run-in on paper, that’s for sure, with Bayern’s campaign drawing to a close against Champions League hopefuls RB Leipzig and Frankfurt. Anything other than a win for Niko Kovac’s side would see Dortmund’s status as favourites to win the league restored.

With that in mind, and so much riding on the result, we may see a slight shift in the pattern of recent meetings between the sides. After all, neither team will want to make any costly mistakes early on, so while it’s not hard to see goals being scored at both ends, the rate might not quite live up to what the fans have been accustomed to in recent years.

Indeed, over the last seven meetings between the sides in all competitions there have been 32 goals, averaging out at 4.6 per game. A repeat of over 4.5 is priced up at a relatively modest high of 4.1 with some bookmakers, and given the magnitude of the game, seeing 5+ goals seems incredibly unlikely.

Barring a 3-2 win in Munich in the cup in 2017, Dortmund aren’t particularly prolific at the Allianz in general, scoring one goal or fewer in their other seven visits since 2013. The away side aren’t generally hitting their stride until late on in matches either, with just one first half goal across their last five matches compared to six after the 80th minute. As a result Betway’s price of 3.2 on Dortmund’s first goal to be scored in the second half would be our first top tip.

It’s the goal times market that may be worth delving deeper into, with 56 per cent of Dortmund’s league goals this season scored from the 60th minute onwards. Bayern, by comparison, spread their strikes far more evenly throughout the 90 minutes, so if Favre’s side are to get a result they may have to do so from behind, just as they did when the sides last met in November.

With some odds over evens on Bayern to be ahead at half-time there is good value there, but the chance to double your money on the highest scoring half being the second is even more appealing. Four of the five goals scored in the reverse fixture came after the interval and while we may not see so many today, late drama is still a distinct possibility in what is arguably the biggest game of the entire season so far across Europe’s major leagues.