Why There Will be Goals at Both Ends When England Meet Germany
After a stalemate in last weekend’s Bookmaker Ratings battle for the Manchester derby, our attentions turn to international football this time around.
In this piece we’re trading tips for Saturday’s clash between two international heavyweights as World Champions Germany host England, with both preparing for the upcoming European Championships.
With each expert picking up a point for their team for every correct tip, WhoScored.com is still holding a three-point advantage, so let’s introduce this week’s challenger. We’ll be taking on RT (Russia Today) and the Bookmaker Ratings journalist Dmitry Khlestkin, first assessing Dmitry's suggestions for the showdown in Berlin.
Dmitry’s tips - read more
If we look into Germany’s friendlies after the World Cup, we’ll see that Die Mannschaft doesn’t take them too seriously. A draw against Australia and a loss to the United States in home matches is a clear sign of underestimating the opponents…
This all gives me a clear sign that England will score at least once. And I don’t doubt that Germany will find their way to the net, too. So, both teams to score at 1.91 seems like a very good price…
Given the fact that Germany will be without the injured Boateng and Höwedes as well as the retired Lahm and Mertesacker, England have every chance to score more than once. Picking this is, of course, a risky affair, but the price at 4.20 is extremely attractive.
WhoScored’s say
Germany have certainly been far from convincing in friendlies in recent years, despite their impressive record in competitive matches, and while I don’t think they will take any match against England lightly, it’s true that the hosts could be vulnerable. Given the strong attacking actions at Roy Hodgson’s disposal - with Kane and Vardy alone netting 40 league goals between one another - a bet on both teams to score is definitely wise given the question marks over the defences of both nations.
England were free scoring in the most part in qualifying for the Euros but the quality of their opponents pale in comparison to Joachim Low’s side. The Three Lions usually struggle to have too much of an impact in the final third against nations that are stronger than them, with Germany still undoubtedly falling into that category, and while the odds on the visitors to score at least twice are indeed substantial, that’s a risk I won’t be taking.
WhoScored’s tips
I’m following in Dmitry’s footsteps in backing both teams to score given the quality on display but going to push it a little further. Indeed, with a relatively large discrepancy in the odds, I’m willing to back the fact that it won’t be a 1-1 draw, meaning an over 2.5 goals result would be a certainty if both teams were to find the net, with the odds jumping to 2.37. The fact that each of Germany's last five home games have seen at least three goals scored is also enough to convince us of a high scoring game.
Switching to the player markets for my second tip, I’m touting Thomas Muller to add to the two goals he has netted against England and his 31-goal tally for Die Mannschaft. With England’s first choice centre-back pairing still up in the air - Chris Smalling is perhaps the only defender who looks certain of a starting berth at the Euros - the visitors will need to be organised to keep a player of Muller’s intelligence at bay and any teething issues early on could prove costly.
The Bayern man has been in fine form in front of goal this season - just one shy of 20 league goals - and in the last seven matches he has scored, four of his goals have been the first of the game. With odds of 5.00 on Muller to open the scoring, he’s the man I think will get the ball rolling in what should be an entertaining affair.
Who's tips will you be taking on this Saturday? Let us know in the comments below
