Team Focus: Should Chelsea Really Play A More Possession-Based Game?
The unrivalled success of Pep Guardiola's Barcelona team as well as the Spanish national team from 2008 through 2012 sparked a huge rise in the idealisation of their tika-taka style of play. Bayern Munich have become arguably the best club side on the planet, while Germany swiftly proved themselves to be the best team at the 2014 World Cup, both doing so by dominating possession as they ground opponents down. Being able to control games and pass teams off the pitch has become, for many, the ultimate aspiration when it comes to how to play 'the beautiful game'.
And that is what sparked Jose Mourinho's recent outburst after his Chelsea team - who will soon be crowned Premier League champions - were subjected to a chorus of "boring, boring Chelsea" as they shut out second-placed Arsenal at the Emirates to record a highly disciplined but rather dull goalless draw to maintain their 10-point lead at the top of the table. The exuberant celebrations with which the players welcomed the final whistle were widely criticised, as many questioned the legitimacy of the country's best footballing side cheering merely stopping their opponents rather than going across London and playing them off the park.
Mourinho responded by claiming that we have become too obsessed with retaining and recycling possession, and wanting to play football in a very particular way. "Maybe, when my grandsons play, football will be a game without goals and we’ll just enjoy people passing the ball. But when football is played without goals, you will say it’s boring." He has a point, but there are those still in disbelief that such a talented squad should feel the need to approach their run-in in such a way.
But then why should they have to play in any particular way if their unquestionably knowledgable and gifted manager feels that is not the best course of action? It is they that hold the lead at the top of the table and it is they that will win the Premier League this season, so why should they change the reactive, pragmatic approach they have taken to using in recent matches since the team's early season form dissipated?
To be clear, Chelsea have not played this way all season. In the first half of the 2014/15 campaign they were by far and away the best footballing side, and have thus averaged 55.1% possession, the sixth-most in the Premier League. Before their recent games against United and Arsenal - in which they ceded possession to their opponents - they had even seen more of the ball than the Gunners.
As Mourinho claims, if they win the title they will have had a successful season, regardless of their possession share. Atletico Madrid won La Liga last season with the 10-highest average possession (just 49%), while Rayo Vallecano finished 12th in the table with 56.8% of the ball, the second most. No need to question which team would have finished the season the happier.
Granted, Chelsea's situation is vastly different to that of Atletico's. The Blues have the means, finances and players to dominate the Premier League and play past opponents, and many people find it frustrating that they have started to opt against doing so, but the truth is that they do not - as some have suggested they might - have any duty to entertain. Mourinho's job is to win trophies and doing so without as much of the ball as Barcelona or Bayern Munich is certainly still successful. As the above graph highlights, there is a general trend showing that possession correlates with league position, with Bayern (70.2%), Barcelona (69.2%) and PSG (63.5%) leading Europe's top 5 leagues for possession and all three likely to win their respective domestic titles. Generally, at the other end, too, less possession means relegation is more likely, plainly because worse teams struggle to retain possession.
This is not, obviously, by any means an exhaustive rule, though. United (60.7%) rank fourth in Europe for possession and may well finish outside the Premier League's top 3; Inter rank second in Italy (59.2%) but aren't having a great campaign; Valencia are 43rd in Europe for possession but may even challenge the top 3 in La Liga; Crystal Palace are safely in the Premier League's mid-table but have the lowest share of the ball of all 98 teams in Europe's top 5 leagues (40.5%).
The graph helps to pick out some teams that perhaps do 'better' or 'worse' than their possession share suggests they should. Lens, for example, are 20th in Ligue 1 despite enjoying 48.1% possession; Vallecano are 11th with 57.5% possession; Cagliari are 18th in Serie A with 48% possession, the same average share as the Bundesliga's 5th-placed team, Schalke. The trend line shows where teams should be according to their possession, with the likes of PSG, Tottenham and Getafe closest to it. Clearly, however, there is not necessarily any reason to particularly prefer a possession-based approach. Chelsea will have no qualms about winning the league having had less of the ball than the likes of Borussia Dortmund or Liverpool.
It may be that their approach could limit them European competition, though, where the trend is even stronger. Bayern (66%), Barcelona (63.8%), Juventus (58.4%) and Real Madrid (57.9%) - the four teams remaining in this year's competition - have recorded the most possession. Chelsea had less than half of the ball in both legs against PSG and failed to put the tie to bed despite leading on 3 occasions.
Chelsea won the Champions with only 47.5% possession in 2012, though, while Atleti came within a matter of minutes of victory in last season's final despite having just 46.3% possession. Granted, neither team will go down in history as one of the greatest ever footballing sides, but their achievements are in no way lessened by those stats.
Jose Mourinho has no obligation to entertain: even though many people that pay good money to watch football may contest it, his duty is merely to lead Chelsea to success. Roman Abramovich's disgruntlement at Chelsea not playing sufficiently good quality football was reportedly the reason that Mourinho's last tenure was ended, but would he, or Chelsea's fans, prefer their team to miss out on the Premier League title for four seasons in a row, or be back at the summit, whatever the method? There is quite simply no question about it.
Do you think there is too great an obsession with possession football? Do you think Chelsea are justified in playing whatever style of football they please? Let us know in the comments below
