Tournament Focus: Analysing the English Teams' Chances of Europa League Progression
After the first leg of Europa League ties last week, the pressure is now on the English teams to better their performances now back on home turf. Here, WhoScored.com looks at the chances of Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham progressing to the next round of Europe’s second-tier competition.
The Reds secured a credible if underwhelming 0-0 draw with relegation-threatened Augsburg in Germany, though manager Jurgen Klopp undeniably hoped to wrap up the tie at the WWK Arena. With the Capital One Cup final looming, the last thing Liverpool will want is a battling encounter with their Bundesliga counterparts. Markus Weinzierl’s side have lost only one of their last eight away games in all competitions, so progression isn't as straight forward as Reds fans may hope.
Liverpool are unbeaten in their seven Europa League games this season, but have only won two, with their disappointing WhoScored rating at home (6.87) highlighting their poor form at Anfield in the competition. A total of four goals scored in three Europa League games on Merseyside has contributed to their low score, though it’s not for want of trying. Only Marseille (22.8), Napoli (22.7) and Borussia Dortmund (21.8) are averaging more shots per home game in the Europa League this season than Liverpool (21.7).
With Daniel Sturridge edging closer to full fitness and confident of striking up an impressive understanding with Philippe Coutinho and Roberto Firmino, Klopp could be tempted to field the attacking trident, despite the Capital One Cup final commencing less than three days after Thursday’s welcome of Augsburg. Klopp will be keen to progress and starting Sturridge, Coutinho and Firmino is likely to be the quickest way to wrapping up the tie.
Fans will hope to see the three players start together for the first time at Anfield this season. A 0-0 draw last week could have been worse when taking into account Simon Mignolet (7.37) was Liverpool’s highest rated player. As a result Liverpool can now be confident of victory against Augsburg on Thursday. They need to ward against complacency, however, in order to secure their spot in the last-16 of the Europa League.
A 3-0 win over Shrewsbury in the FA Cup on Monday night provided a little breathing space for under pressure manager Louis van Gaal, who oversaw a 2-1 defeat to Danish side FC Midtjylland last week. The Dutchman has a vast majority of the United fanbase against him after numerous disappointing displays, with reports suggesting he will be sacked at the end of the season, at the very latest.
Supporters, though, will be buoyed by United’s recent results at Old Trafford with the Manchester side losing just one of their last five home competitive games. Midtjylland, meanwhile, have played just one competitive fixture since December, that coming last week against United, and it remains to be seen how quickly they can recover from such an arduous win over the Premier League side last week.
United, however, have a lengthy injury list with which to contend with, with no fewer than 11 players expected to miss the welcome of Midtjylland due to injury. Van Gaal’s squad is thin on the ground at present, with fatigue expected to have an adverse effect on their performances. A 2-1 defeat means United are still in with a chance of progressing to the next round of the Europa League, however, with the Danish side’s form away from home in the competition leaving a lot to be desired.
Midtjylland lost two of their three away games in the group stages, conceding six goals combined in defeats to Napoli and Legia Warszawa, while Jess Thorup’s side have failed to win any of their last six away competitive matches. Memphis’ vital away goal means the Premier League outfit should be hopeful of overturning the deficit against a Midtjylland team that has a poor away WhoScored rating (6.58) in the Europa League this term.
Tottenham’s eight-game unbeaten run was halted at the weekend as they succumbed to a 1-0 home FA Cup defeat to Crystal Palace, but the North London side have the upper hand coming into the second leg of their last-32 meeting with Fiorentina. Nacer Chadli's penalty in the 1-1 draw in Florence last week gifted Spurs a vital away goal ahead of the return meeting in London, meaning the Premier League side are favourites to progress from this tricky tie.
Indeed, of the three teams the English sides have had to face, Fiorentina are undoubtedly the toughest opponent. Paulo Sousa’s side are currently third in Serie A, just six points off top spot, and in the midst of a seven-game unbeaten streak. Away from home, however, they have struggled of late, winning just two of their last eight competitive games on the road. However, Spurs’ home form recently has also been patchy, with three wins from their last seven competitive outings at White Hart Lane.
Nonetheless, Spurs have impressed on home turf in the Europa League, with only Napoli (7.64) and Schalke (7.25) gaining a better WhoScored rating at home than Spurs (7.18) of all teams to have participated in the group stages. Conversely, and using the same parameters, only Schalke (7.17) have a better away rating than Fiorentina (7.09) in the Europa League this term, with the Viola also securing a credible 1-1 draw in London when these two teams met in the competition last season.
The same result would take this tie to extra time and while Spurs may hold the upper hand, they face by far the most difficult encounter of the three English clubs left in the competition. Nevertheless, all three teams have what it takes to secure a place in the next round of the Europa League.
Of the three English teams left in the competition, which do you feel stands the best chance of progressing to the next round of the Europa League? Let us know in the comments below
