Europa League final tips: Arsenal offer great value under expert Emery

It’s the last London derby of the season, so naturally Chelsea and Arsenal meet in Azerbaijan as they vie to end topsy turvy campaigns with some silverware.

It’s the Blues that are the considerable favourites with the bookmakers to do just that, which makes relatively little sense given the circumstances ahead of the game.

While Arsenal will be without Aaron Ramsey and - utterly unjustly - Henrik Mkhitaryan, Chelsea have important players out themselves. Antonio Rudiger will definitely miss the final, N’Golo Kante has a 50-50 chance of being fit and both Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Callum Hudson-Odoi are sidelined having played pivotal roles in reaching this stage.

It’s a route that has undeniably been more favourable to Maurizio Sarri, who may well be taking charge of his last match as Chelsea boss, but one that his side made hard work of at times.

While the nominal home team may be unbeaten in the competition to date, they laboured to 1-0 wins over PAOK, Vidi, BATE Borisov and Slavia Prague along the way and needed penalties to overcome the strongest opposition that they faced in Frankfurt in the semi-finals.

Arsenal have lost twice by comparison but their ability to bounce back from defeats at the aforementioned BATE and Rennes has given the Gunners the boost they needed to overcome what lied ahead. Comfortable wins over two legs against both Napoli and Valencia proved that Unai Emery’s knack of navigating this competition has not been lost.

The Spaniard lifted the trophy three times with Sevilla between 2014 and 2016 and is aiming to become the first manager to win the UEFA Cup / Europa League four times. Five impressive victories on the spin in the competition would suggest it’s the Reds that may well approach the game with more confidence along with a sense of injustice that they will use to motivate them.

Moreover, when looking at the last seven meetings between these sides in all competitions, Chelsea have come out on top just the once, having also ended the season with just one win from five matches.

There’s no question that there is very little between the teams in general, with Arsenal’s 2-0 win in the last meeting between the sides the first in those aforementioned seven encounters separated by more than a single goal, so the disparity in the odds seems far too big. Chelsea are at a highest price of 2.25 (Black Type) to win outright, while Arsenal are as high as 3.7 (Sporting Bet).

However, given games between these two are often tight, a price of 2.3 from Bet365 on Arsenal’s to lift the trophy - be that after 90 minutes, extra time or penalties - is too good to resist for me.

Nevertheless, Chelsea should have enough to score given their firepower on show, with two leading candidates to do just that for the Blues. The first is former Arsenal man Olivier Giroud - gunning for the outright lead in the Golden Boot having scored ten in the tournament to date.

The Frenchman is as far out as 3.1 to score anytime with Betfair and Paddy Power, while the stage is set for Eden Hazard to - potentially - sign off in style at Chelsea. The Belgian’s future may well be the big transfer story of this summer but it does seem increasingly likely that it may lay elsewhere - namely Real Madrid.

He’s lower than he might otherwise be in the scoring stakes as a result but with five goals against the Gunners in games gone by is certainly a prime suspect to find the net. Including Hazard in on Arsenal to lift the trophy via Bet365’s bet builder - effectively factoring in both teams to score in the process - heralds odds of 9.00 on that particular double.