Has Benitez's Appointment Come Too Late To Shore Up Geordies

Aston Villa have lost their last 11 games in a row and even if there has been some evidence of a moderate improvement in recent away defeats to Manchester United and Watford, there is little reason to suppose their final Premier League home game of the season will bring a change of fortune. Which is good news for Newcastle, who must also have been heartened by Tottenham’s loss of composure against Chelsea. Spurs will have nothing to play for at St James’ Park on the final day and may find their squad depleted by suspensions.

One win for Newcastle looks likely and two is distinctly possible. The problem is that that might not be enough. Norwich would go above them by winning their final three games of the season, and Sunderland almost certainly would if they can take seven points from home games against Chelsea and Everton and an away game at Watford. All of which prompts the obvious question of why it took them so long to turn to Rafa Benitez.

Theirs is a strange squad, full of players who used to look as if they might become good, players who might become good, and good players who have apparently lost interest. In terms of pure talent, Newcastle look significantly superior to both Sunderland and Norwich. The issue has been application and discipline and, partly because of the environment created by Mike Ashley, a series of managers have failed to cope with that.

Benitez, in that sense, is the perfect manager for the club, provided he is allowed to do his job – and the impression is that previous managers have found themselves obstructed by the hierarchy. Benitez, perhaps more than any other Premier League manager, believes in the value of control. He micromanages and his disgust at his side after the defeat at Southampton can be taken as a watershed.

That was the moment at which he returned to basics, selecting only those players who followed orders and coming up with the idea of making Moussa Sissoko, arguably the most talented player in the squad, captain. His focus has not always been what it might, but with the armband, he has not only been diligent but has seemingly inspired the other French players at the club. After three defeats and a draw from Benitez’s first four games at the club, the last four have brought two wins and two draws.

Nine points in eight games may not sound like much, but extrapolate that over a season and it’s 43 points, comfortably enough to stay up. And the trend is clearly upward. Goals scored are up from 1 to 1.4, goals conceded down from 1.9 to 1.4. Shots per game are down, but shots on target and conversion up, suggesting there is a greater plan to the play, that there are far fewer speculative shots. Possession and pass completion haven’t particularly changed: that suggests there hasn’t been a radical change to the style of play, just that Newcastle are enacting it more effectively now.

Sunderland have also been playing better recently and they’ve lost just four games since the turn of the year. Their problem has been eight draws, in six of which they can legitimately claim to have been the better side. Even if two of those six games had been won they’d be as good as out of sight by now (that said, against Crystal Palace and Stoke it has taken injury-time equalisers to take a point). Since the end of January, half of the goals scored by players still in the Sunderland squad have gone to Jermain Defoe, and that reliance on one player has, slightly unexpectedly, given Newcastle a chance. If they’d given Benitez the job earlier, it might be rather more than that.

Can Newcastle beat the drop? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below