Champions League final tips: Slow starters Tottenham to pay price vs Liverpool

And so it ends. The 2018/19 campaign, certainly across the major domestic divisions and European competitions, comes to its culmination in Madrid as Premier League rivals Tottenham and Liverpool battle it out for Champions League glory.

For Spurs this is unchartered territory. For Liverpool not only the chance to lift their sixth European Cup but banish the demons from last year’s defeat to Real Madrid.

It is the Reds that unsurprisingly enter the game as strong favourites, and in truth it’s hard to argue with that assumption. To an extent it’s a similar feel to last year when Zinedine Zidane’s side were heavily backed to lift the trophy, and it’s Tottenham this time that have very little to lose.

After all, even despite reaching this stage of the world’s most esteemed club competition it’s difficult to make a claim for Tottenham having really progressed this season. They finished one place and six points off of last season’s league record, while Liverpool have improved to a startling degree.

It’s easy to forget that Jurgen Klopp’s side finished below Mauricio Pochettino’s in the table in 2017/18, but a huge hike in points this season saw them finish a whopping 26 clear of the Londoners. For context that’s the same gap from Manchester United in sixth to Burnley in 15th and from the Reds to back to Merseyside rivals Everton in the previous campaign.

So how do we find value in Saturday night’s showdown? Well, the first half market is as good a place as any to start.

Tottenham have scored in the first half of just two of their 12 Champions League games thus far. Meanwhile, whenever Liverpool have scored in the tournament - failing to do so in four of 12 matches to date - they have always managed to do so before half-time.

The Reds have also been winning 1-0 at the break in each of their last three league meetings with Spurs and netted in the first half of each of the last seven encounters between the sides - doing so exactly once in six of those. Tottenham, meanwhile, have only scored in one of said matches in the opening 45 minutes.

TIP 1: Liverpool HT @2.60 (William Hill) OR TIP 2: Liverpool 1-0 HT @4 (Multiple)

Since the New Year’s Day victory at Cardiff - wrapping up a 3-0 lead and win inside half an hour - Tottenham have been slow starters in general.

In the 27 matches in all competitions following said match, Spurs have scored in just six before the interval (eight goals in total in that time). By comparison over the same spell they have netted 32 second half goals, meaning 80 per cent of the team’s last 40 goals have been scored after the midway point.

There’s some hope for Tottenham even if they are trailing at the break then, but Liverpool come out firing in the second half of matches themselves.

Not only have they scored after the interval in seven of their last eight matches in all competitions - failing to score altogether in the other in Barcelona - but second half goals was one of the statistics in which they even outscored Manchester City in the Premier League (51).

As such, as is so often the case, the highest scoring half is more likely to be the second. In fact, you have to venture back 11 years to the last all-English Champions League final to find the last in which the first half saw more goals.

With the odds understandably stacked on another repeat of the norm in that regard, you’ll find more value on both teams to score after the break.

Full match preview, team news and predicted lineups

TIP 3: Both teams to score in the second half @3.25 (Multiple)

If those three tasty prices on single bets still don’t take your fancy, how about a 25/1 shot instead?

That’s the odds you get using Bet365’s Bet Builder tool when combining the tips of Liverpool to lead 1-0 at half-time, both teams to score in the second half and - following our preview prediction - the Reds to win 2-1.

It would not only be the third consecutive outcome between the two sides but the sixth match in seven in which Liverpool have scored exactly two goals in this fixture. Isolating that particular bet on the exact goals scored by Jurgen Klopp’s side at two may also be appealing (@3.40 with Bet365).

Bet Builder: Liverpool 1-0 at HT (4), BTTS in 2nd half (3.25), Liverpool 2-1 (8.5) = 26 (Bet365)