One way traffic expected as Iceland aim to frustrate England

We’re back in action in our betting tip battle against Bookmaker Ratings, today tipping off against BR journalist Pavel Lokhovinin ahead of England’s match-up with Iceland.

With a point awarded for any correct tip and WhoScored still out in front, we’re aiming to stretch our lead with another winning bet.

Pavel’s tip - read more here

Iceland have certainly done well, but have perhaps rode their luck at times. On another day Portugal could’ve easily scored more. And Hungary, who won the group in the end, could’ve also taken more from their game. Anyway, there’s no doubt that Iceland deserved their place in the round of 16. Their fitness and sheer determination allows them to keep any opponent on their toes in every game.

England are the favourites here (8/15), and it’s understandable. Surely this is a winnable game for them? But can they win without conceding a goal? Iceland now have nothing to lose, they’ve made history and now can play with absolutely no pressure. All of the pressure will be on Roy Hodgson. The price on both teams scoring is too tempting to miss – 7/4. Iceland have scored in each of their Euro games and they can do it again.

WhoScored’s say

It’s true that Iceland did score in all three of their group games - one of only five sides to do so, along with Wales, Hungary, Spain and Croatia - but it’s also true that their chances to find the back of the net are likely to be few and far between. Lars Lagerback has set his side up to sit deep and hit teams on the counter thus far, and to great effect. Noticing how Slovakia in particular were able to keep England at bay, there’s little chance of a change of tack.

Indeed, in the group stages no side had a greater proportion of their touches in their own defensive third than Iceland (34%), while no side had a lower percentage than England (21%). The Three Lions, despite not conceding a great deal of chances against opponents that have only really looked to defend, have had some hairy moments at the back at times though, so the odds on both teams to score are tempting, as Pavel suggests. 

WhoScored’s tip - full match preview

Weighing up between the trend of tight affairs early on and England justifying their odds as strong favourites, the timing of the first goal, if their is one, will be crucial in this game. In truth if Iceland were to score before half-time, as they have in two of three matches thus far, their game plan and indeed the pattern of the match is unlikely to change too much. However, if England were to score their first goal before half time of the tournament, the game should open up and suit Roy Hodgson’s side.

The game, of course, is not played on paper but this England side is packed with quality compared to that of Iceland, so the odds on the favourites to win by more than one goal @2.37 seem favourable. Hodgson’s side will no doubt need to be more clinical in front of goal to secure such a result, having had the most shots per game (21.3) at this stage of the tournament, while Iceland have conceded the most (20.3 per game). It certainly looks likely to be one way traffic for much of the game. Can England finally make their dominance count?

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