The post-season is approaching fast and MLS is scrambling over 10 play-off places. The best and most successful coaches tune their team’s performance towards the end of the regular season (see Dominic Kinnear) but only a few have mastered that skill. If you get the timing wrong your team could miss out altogether.
So who will make a late dash for a post-season spot? Is it too late for the Vancouver Whitecaps?
June and July saw the Whitecaps put together an impressive run of results, winning six out of eight fixtures. Martin Rennie’s side looked nailed on to claim a play-off place in the tightly contested Western Conference.
But a dismal run of form over the past two months, where the Caps have claimed just two wins from nine fixtures, has seen them slump down the table to their current position.
Vancouver’s last two outings provide a microcosm of their season, beating the Montreal Impact 3-0 at Stade Saputo before losing at home to a Real Salt Lake side without a number of first team regulars. The character of Rennie’s side has been called into question and many are asking whether they have the personality for a play-off run.
With four games of the regular season schedule remaining and four points still standing between them and the fifth and final play-off place in the West, the Whitecaps need to string a sequence of victories together to stand any chance of making the post-season.
However, those fixtures will see the Whitecaps come up against the Portland Timbers, the Seattle Sounders and the Colorado Rapids (double-header); all teams ahead of Vancouver in the Western standings. The challenge has been set.
If the Whitecaps are to make a genuine charge for that fifth and final spot they must find a more consistent attacking groove. Despite scoring three against Montreal, Vancouver have netted in just one of their last three fixtures.
As an attacking proposition Vancouver rely on Camilo to provide the firepower and creativity in the final third.
The Brazilian is the most potent of the Whitecaps’ usual front three. With 16 goals this season Camilo has scored double that of Vancouver’s next top scorer, Kenny Miller.
Camilo is an attacking hub for the Whitecaps, averaging 3.6 shots per game (the highest average within Vancouver's ranks) and making an average of one key pass per game, occupying the top three of that column as well.
Having contributed four assists to the team this season, ranking him second in Vancouver’s assists column (Russell Teibert leads with six), and averaged 0.7 accurate crosses per game (the second highest average at Vancouver), Camilo is arguably the best all-round attacking threat in MLS and if the Caps are to make the play-offs the charge will likely come through him.
Teibert has also been highly influential as part of the Whitecaps frontline. Of the three Teibert is the playmaker, leading Vancouver’s assists and key passes per game column (1.6). Where Sporting Kansas City have Graham Zusi, Vancouver has Teibert.
The Whitecaps’ midfield will come up against the most accomplished central unit in the league on Sunday, with Chara and Will Johnson expected to start for the Portland Timbers. So how can Rennie’s team counter the duo?
Having been chewed up and spat out by the English league system Nigel Reo-Coker has been given a second wind in MLS, providing the sort of midfield presence Vancouver had been lacking before his arrival.
The former Aston Villa midfielder averages 2.9 tackles and 1.6 interceptions per match, while also making more passes per game (an average of 47.6) than any other Vancouver player. His worth to the Whitecaps when it comes to claiming and recycling possession is clear.
As far as his defensive midfield counterparts go, only Portland’s Diego Chara and Colorado’s Hendry Thomas average more tackles per game in the league. Reo-Coker's capacity to break up play and keep the ball will be crucial if Vancouver are to record a positive result against the Timbers.
However, when looking at Vancouver’s backline the statistics are not so encouraging. Jay DeMerit still averages the most tackles among the team’s central defenders and he has been ruled out for the majority for the season.
Carlyle Mitchell is the only centre half to appear in Vancouver’s top 10 tacklers, making an average of just 1.7 tackles per game. It could be that Rennie favours a more pro-active approach, as Andy O’Brien and Brad Rusin both occupy top-five places in the Whitecaps’ interceptions column, but having conceded 39 goals from 30 games this season, whilst only scoring 42, there is cause for defensive concern.
Perhaps the challenge will be too great for Rennie and the Whitecaps. Quite simply, he needs a higher standard from all three sub-sections of his team: defence, midfield and attack.
It’s not too late for Vancouver, but Rennie has given himself a daunting challenge.
Can the Whitecaps beat the odds and gain a play-off spot? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below
