Team Focus: Sevilla Lacking Goals from All Areas

Marcelino became the latest victim of the La Liga chopping block this week as just over halfway thought the season, Sevilla became the eighth side to change their manager.

The decision was hardly surprising, Marcelino himself had acknowledged before Sunday’s 2-1 defeat at home to Villarreal that he was lucky not to have been sacked before now. A current league position of 11th allied to early exits in the Europa League and Copa de Rey did not meet the expectations of a board, who sacked Gregorio Manzano at the end of last season for finishing 5th.

Yet, two months ago things appeared to be going to plan. After a 3-0 win over Getafe in December, Sevilla were 5th, only separated from a Champions League place by Levante who, despite their fairytale start, everyone assumes will drop off into mid-table.

In reality though, Sevilla had been very lucky until that point and their current run of seven league games without a win has merely confirmed earlier fears that they are too reliant on certain individuals at both ends of the field.

Up to and including the Getafe game, Sevilla had conceded just 10 goals in 14 league games. Even more impressively they had conceded only two goals in six away matches, but four of those were 0-0 draws and in three of them, goalkeeper Javi Varas was man of the match.

Varas was also the game’s outstanding player as they beat Valencia 1-0 at home in September and in the first 14 games of the season had kept eight clean sheets at a WhoScored average player rating of 7.35. In the last seven he has conceded 14 goals with only one clean sheet and a rating of 6.08.

That is not to say that Sevilla’s current bad form is Varas’ fault but rather the opposite; it was only his heroics earlier in the season that papered over the cracks.

Sevilla’s real problem this season has been scoring goals. The Andalucían side has netted just 22 times in their 21 league encounters and just like with Varas, their early season reliance on Alvaro Negredo has been exposed in recent weeks.

Negredo started the season in fine form as he scored four times in his opening nine games, as well as providing the assist for Freddie Kanoute’s winner against Valencia and securing two man of the match awards. Since then though the goals have dried up, the Spanish international has scored just twice since, notching the winner in the 1-0 win at Zaragoza in November and the other was a last minute consolation in the 6-2 thumping by Real Madrid.

The biggest challenge for new manager Michel will be to try and get some goals from midfield. Negredo, Kanoute and Manu del Moral have accounted for 64% of Sevilla’s league goals and although Manu has played predominantly on the left, the majority of his strikes arrived when deputising for Negredo through the middle. Piotr Trochowski and Ivan Rakitic arrived from the Bundesliga with a reputation of getting goals from deep, but neither has found the net this season despite the former having 38 shots on goal.

Whether January recruits Jose Antonio Reyes and Baba Diawara can make a significant difference remains to be seen, but what is certain is that an extra quality and composure is needed in the final third. Despite being seventh from bottom in the goals table, Sevilla have had the fourth highest number of shots per game (14.8) and efforts on target per game (5.7).

And yet, as much as the poultry number of goals from such a number of attempts is a concern, it is also a cause for hope. In a disjointed season where the big two have ran away to hide and Valencia are stuck on their island in third, fourth place and the Champions League riches are still very much in play.

For all their faults, Sevilla are still just six points off Levante and Espanyol in fourth and only four behind the more realistic challengers of Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao. They are still at least creating chances and their high number of attempts isn’t just down to speculative pot-shots as 61% of their efforts come from inside the area. Moreover, mainly thanks to Jesus Navas, they provide the second highest number of crosses per game and Rakitic is joint-third in the league when it comes to key passes.

There is still quality within the squad and should Michel revive them sufficiently to finish fourth, his sixth-month €1m contract will be a bargain.