Player Focus: Why Chelsea Mustn't Drop Petr Cech For Thibaut Courtois

‘Thibauting [Tee-Boh-Ing] - Emulating a classic Thibaut Courtois goalkeeping save in any random location’. The act has become a phenomenon across the footballing world due to the exploits of the Belgium number 1 during his loan spell with Atlético Madrid. Dubbed by many the best in the world, Courtois has ensured the starting spot in between the sticks for the national team has become his to lose for years to come.

Unfortunately for the 21-year-old, parent club Chelsea's current goalkeeping custodian is also believed to be one of the best on the continent. Since signing from Rennes in 2004, Petr Cech has firmly established himself as the club’s number 1, and despite Courtois' arrival in 2011 his position has never really come under threat.

The young shotstopper is yet to register a single appearance for the Blues since signing from Racing Genk, but now entering his third successive loan spell with Los Rojiblancos, supporters are questioning who is more deserving of the role as Chelsea’s starting goalkeeper upon the culmination of Courtois’ time in the Spanish capital. As far as selection headaches go, this one may give José Mourinho a long, sleepless night.

From the outside looking in, there is no right or wrong answer. Both goalkeepers have enjoyed noteworthy starts to the season for their respective clubs, while last term was arguably Cech’s finest in a Blues shirt. Moreover, at 31 years of age, the player still has ample playing time ahead of him, with the lifespan of a goalkeeper much longer than that of an outfield player.

Yet, Courtois has astounded every La Liga aficionado since the day he arrived at the Estadio Vicente Calderón a little over 2 years ago, with the Belgian capable of pulling off even the most impossible of saves. Palming away Esteban Granero’s close range drive during Atlético’s 2-1 win over Real Sociedad last weekend was a prime example of that.

Now in his third season with Atlético, the calls for Courtois to succeed Cech from the 2014/15 season onwards come as little surprise. Over the last 2 seasons, the youngster has seen his save success rate improve considerably from 64.9% to 76.1%, while after 3 league games that figure currently sits at 80%, saving 8 of the 10 shots on target at the Atleti goal thus far.

When you include the 20 clean sheets he kept last term - no goalkeeper in Europe’s top 5 leagues kept more - and the 15 he earned the previous season, his return of 35 is far higher than the 24 Cech kept between the beginning of the 2011 season and the culmination of the 2013 campaign. Meanwhile there has also been a drop in goals conceded by the youngster - from 41 to 29 - over the same period, with Courtois evidently improving with each passing year.

For this to continue, however, Courtois will need to play first-team football, which is something that Atlético are offering this season and Barcelona, who have shown an interest in him, can offer next. At Chelsea, that isn’t the case and it’s herein that the problem lies. As mentioned, Cech currently stands between Courtois and a starting spot and while the latter has impressed immensely; the former has also dazzled for the Premier League side.

While Cech conceded 36 goals last term - 7 more than Courtois - he saved a higher proportion of the shots he faced (79.7% - the best in the Premier League), while also facing a higher number of shots - 122 to Courtois’ 86. This may only be a marginal improvement on Courtois' 76.1% but is evidence that Cech is still capable of performing at the highest level, reinforced in his impressive performance during Chelsea's Super Cup final defeat to Bayern Munich, saving 8 of their 10 shots on target.

La Liga may be lauded as the best league in Europe by some, but the increase in action as a result of the spread of quality in England’s top tier is evident judging from the busyness of Cech in comparison to Courtois last season. This drop in action would likely result in teams passing the ball out of defence rather than look to pump the ball upfield, with the onus in Spain often to probe the opposition patiently rather than urgently press for a goal.

While this may be the case, Cech’s pass success of 57.7% last season was better than Courtois’ (47.3%), and is an indication as to how Chelsea attack the opposition. With 67.3% of Cech’s passes played long in comparison to Courtois’ 78.8% over the 2012/13 campaign, this perhaps highlights how the Belgian is asked to play by Atlético head coach Diego Simeone in order to capitalise on the aerial ability of Radamel Falcao, prior to his switch to Monaco, and Diego Costa.

Evidently, Courtois’ distribution will need to improve before he is to usurp the current Chelsea number 1 at Stamford Bridge, with one of his WhoScored.com weaknesses being long passing, regardless of his insistence on playing the ball long. Yet, the comparisons between the Belgian youngster and current goalkeeping custodian Cech are evident, with the duo sharing the strengths of concentration and shot stopping.

What could stand Courtois in higher stead, however, is his steady decline in opting to punch the ball from danger. Having done so on 21 occasions during the 2011/12 season, the Atlético loanee saw that figure drop to 14 last term and he is yet to punch the ball away from danger this campaign. Over the same timespan, Cech saw his figure rise from 15 to 28 and he's already made 2 punches clear this season. 

Regardless, when it comes to goalkeeping, Cech remains on top of his game and to suggest that Courtois deserves to replace him once he returns to west London from Madrid is questionable, such have been his performances over recent years. While the latter is in need of regular first-team football if he is to continue his development as a player it would be unfair for that to come at the expense of the former.

Granted, Courtois has been immensely impressive during his time with Atlético, but with Cech’s performances improving over the same period, perhaps as a result of Courtois’ blistering 2 years in Spain, seeing the current Chelsea number 1 retain his place in the Stamford Bridge goal next year would come as little surprise.