Assessing the Turning Point as Arsenal Leave it Too Late Again

And so, for Arsenal, the familiar pattern repeats. Just at the moment at which all hope is almost gone, they start to play again. Saturday’s 4-0 win against Watford was a reminder of how good this Arsenal can be, of the swirl of passes, the sudden darts and thrusts, of football as art. But it leaves Arsenal 11 points behind the leaders Leicester City with a game in hand. It all feels like too little too late and demands the question of why? How is it that Arsenal can play like this now, but couldn’t when they endured that run of two wins in nine games through January, February and the beginning of March?

Assuming Leicester don’t collapse and Arsenal don’t pull off something remarkable, when the post-mortem of this season is performed, the key game will be seen to be the 1-1 draw at Norwich in November. It wasn’t so much the result, disappointing as that was for Arsenal, but the injuries sustained that day.

Laurent Koscielny and Alexis Sanchez both went off injured, while Santi Cazorla soldiered on to the end despite a knee injury. As it turned out, Koscielny was back in action within a week, but Sanchez arguably didn’t return to top form until Saturday while Cazorla still hasn’t recovered. Both have been crucial absences.

Cazorla’s partnership with Francis Coquelin was something that first emerged in the 2-0 away win against Manchester City in January last season. In 30 league games the two have played together, Arsenal have picked up 64 points. This season, discounting the game at West Bromwich Albion when Coquelin went off after 13 minutes, Arsenal have taken 23 points from the 11 games they’ve played together (2.09 points per game); without the pair they’ve taken just 1.75 points per game.

The arrival of Mohamed Elneny, a more disciplined presence than Aaron Ramsey or Mathieu Flamini, has helped but he doesn’t offer the same creativity from deep that Cazorla provides. Last season Cazorla provided 11 assists; this season, after Mesut Ozil’s 18 assists, nobody has offered more than four. Cazorla’s pass success rate of 90.3% remains the highest in the side other than Elneny. There’s a reason why Arsenal are scoring at just 1.68 goals per game, their lowest rate since 1998-99.

It’s not just Cazorla, though. Sanchez scored one and set one up on Saturday, but his form this season has been nothing like his form of last year – perhaps in part because he hasn’t had the service from Cazorla. That’s seen in his WhoScored rating: although he got 9.0 on Saturday, Sanchez’s average this season is 7.62 as opposed to 7.81 last season.

Saturday didn’t come from nowhere. He’s managed three assists and two goals in his past four Premier League games. But before that he’d gone five games – back to his injury break following the Norwich game – without contributing either a goal or an assist.

Sanchez has actually had more shots per 90 minutes played this season than last – 4.1 to 3.7 – but more significant is that few of them have been on target. Whether that is a failing on his part or in the sort of chances being created for him is hard to say but what is clear is that his shooting has been less accurate. He’s also produced fewer key passes per game and completed fewer dribbles.

Clearly Sanchez is a very fine player and there are signs he is returning to form; it’s just that, as ever for Arsenal, it’s probably too late to make any real difference. The likelihood is that come the end of the season they will look back at that draw against Norwich and think of what might have been.

Have Arsenal left it too late or is there any chance that they could win the title this season? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below