WhoScored Tipster: This Weekend's Best Bets

Sevilla vs Osasuna

Winless in eight, Sevilla are in desperate need of a first win under their new manager, Míchel Gonzalez.

This won’t be an easy task against an Osasuna side who are buzzing off the back of defeating Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona, possibly ending their title hopes. The Pamplona side’s direct game caused problems against the defending champions and they will be looking to take advantage of a Sevilla side low on confidence.

The stats really show the sort of style that the visitors will be employing, with only three sides averaging more long balls per game, while no other La Liga team wins more aerial duels per game, or scores more goals from set pieces.

For this reason, the value for goalscorer bets seems to lie with burly striker Dejan Lekic, who bagged a brace against the Catalans last week, and boasts five goals in six starts this season. Deadly from a set-piece, Raul Garcia is Osasuna’s leading scorer from midfield this season and he is another one worth considering.

Backing a result either way is risky when a new manager is involved, as it frequently prompts an upturn in form. With the new man likely to want to keep it tight though, the unders may be a consideration on the goals market.

Looking at the form and seeing both sides’ games have averaged less than 2.5 goals per game over in their last six is enough to convince that 1.72 is a decent enough price to back less than 2.5 goals on the goal line.

Novara vs Atalanta

Following a memorable win to complete their season double over Inter, Novara will look to get only their fourth win of the season against Bergamo side Atalanta.

The visitors will have other ideas, however, and are a club whose league position belies their abilities, having lost six points due to a match-fixing scandal from the previous campaign. Without those deductions, they’d find themselves chasing European football and having made some astute signings over the summer, it’s easy to see why.

Favouring a solid 4-4-1-1, Atalanta look to create through the genius of diminutive Argentine Maximilliano Moralez, while Germán Denis has proved to be one of the bargains of the summer having already netted twelve times in Serie A this season.

From the WhoScored profile of Atalanta, we can see that they play with width and look to cross towards Denis, making him an interesting proposition for first goalscorer at 5.00 as he is undoubtedly the focal point of their attack, having scored 48% of the club’s league goals since joining.

Novara return home as heroes having conquered the San Siro, but their form in their own back yard has been poor, losing the last five there. While they have only won two of their twelve home games this season, five draws have been scrambled, which puts us off the outright backing of Atalanta.

Predicting the visitors to be slightly stronger, and with Novara ‘very weak’ in defending from ‘wing play situations’, something that we already know is their opponent’s strength, backing Atalanta DNB at 1.90 seems like the value choice.

DNB: Draw no bet – stake returned if match ends in a draw

Hertha Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

Sitting rock bottom of the form table and with only one win in ten, Hertha Berlin are sinking like a stone.

Now perilously close to the relegation zone, the last things they needed was a visit from Jurgen Klopp’s Borussa Dortmund, the form side in the league and the best team on the road in this season’s Bundesliga.

It would seem an obvious bet to back Dortmund to win in the capital but 1.5 is a very slim price. Having netted 14 goals in their last six away games while conceding just four, the -1.5 on the Asian Handicap seems good value at 2.10, especially against such out of sorts opposition.

With six goals and three assists in his last five games, Robert Lewandowski is the obvious choice for any goalscorer bets but his price doesn’t really attract unless you are confident in him bagging a brace at 5.00 – something he has managed to do in two of Dortmund’s last three away games.

Interestingly, no club in the league has scored fewer of their goals from inside the six yard box than Klopp’s men, so in the event of backing a midfielder to score then Kevin Grosskreutz is the man, having scored in two of their last three away games, and already bagged six from midfield this campaign.

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