A German side will win the Champions League for the third time on Saturday night after two of the most impressive and interesting teams in European football have done battle for the 5th time this season. Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich have each won the competition once before, and whoever is eventually victorious will have the added enjoyment of raising the trophy at the home of English football. Of course, Jurgen Klopp and Jupp Heynckes need no bigger incentive than the size of the prize at stake, and both teams could well come out all guns blazing at kick off.
After 5 consecutive victories over Bayern across the 2010/11 and 2011/12 seasons, Dortmund have failed to win any of their 4 meetings this season, drawing twice in the league and losing in the German Super Cup and DFB Pokal. Both losses were by a single goal, however, and the gulf in quality between the sides is quite simply nowhere near as vast as the 25 point gap between the teams at the top of the Bundesliga suggests. Dortmund showcased their credentials to the world in trouncing Jose Mourinho's Real Madrid 4-1 at their Westfalenstadion, and their successive Bundesliga titles in the 2 seasons prior to this one should not be forgotten.
While Bayern are rightly favourites to triumph, Klopp will have his team tactically drilled and they should, at the very least, manage to score. They have only failed net once in their last 10 matches - in the process scoring an incredible 26 times - and that came when trying to defend a first leg lead against Madrid and were not in need of goals, though even then they still threatened. Furthermore, they have also only managed one clean sheet in that run of games, conceding 15 goals. Their recent games also include a 1-1 draw with their Champions League Final opponents.
Bayern have an exceptional defensive record this season, conceding only 18 goals in 34 Bundesliga matches and keeping clean sheets in both legs of their Champions League quarter- and semi-finals on their way to Wembley, meaning it has thus been over 6 hours since they conceded in the competition (Laurent Koscielny is the last player to score against them). However, they shipped 3 goals - all in the opening 10 minutes - at Borussia Mönchengladbach last weekend, highlighting the fact that their defence is not quite as infallible as their record suggests. With both Dortmund and Bayern both having scored in 4 of their last 5 games against one another and desperate to win on Saturday, both teams to score at 1.67 looks a decent bet.
A yet more common theme in recent clashes between the rivals is fast starts to the games. In 8 of the last 13 meetings there has been a goal in the opening 15 minutes, with Dortmund responsible for 7 of those goals and Bayern just the one. What's more, Dortmund have scored within that timeframe in 22 matches in all competitions this season, including in each of their last 3 games. Despite scoring significantly more goals over the season, Bayern have only found the net inside the opening quarter of an hour on just 14 occasions this term, and they seem to have picked up something of a habit of conceding early, with each of the last 4 goals they have shipped coming early on. Whilst 3 of those came against Gladbach, the other was a Kevin Grosskreutz strike in the draw with Dortmund at the beginning of May. Dortmund may well attack from the off and an early goal could well be on the cards, so back a goal in the first 15 minutes at odds of 3.10.
Responsible for no fewer than 10 of Dortmund's goals within the 15 minute mark this season is 23 year-old Marco Reus. With Mario Götze missing out through injury, Reus will likely be utilised in a central role behind striker Robert Lewandowski, and with that duo having scored 10 of Dortmund's last 14 goals, there will be a great onus on them to provide more come Saturday night. Reus clearly starts games at full pelt, and he will be hoping to add to his 'early goal' tally against a surprisingly leaky - of late at least - Bayern defence. Reus can be backed to score first at 11.00. All the while, Bayern remain the better of the two sides, and will not capitulate if they are to concede early on. They fought back from 2-0 and 3-1 down to defeat Gladbach last weekend, and should not be written off should they go behind again. 3 of Dortmund's 8 losses against German opposition this season have come after having gone ahead, and doubling up a Bayern win after Reus scores first generates odds of 15.00. For those looking for a more ambitious bet, or those merely hoping for an entertaining game, this is certainly worth punt.
