Tottenham vs Aston Villa: How Ollie Watkins can exploit Van de Ven-less Spurs

 

At surface level, this just looks like another normal Ollie Watkins season. He’s playing plenty, scoring plenty and contributing plenty. With five goals and two assists from the first nine games, he once again rates as one of the most productive and dangerous players in the Premier League. 

 

But under the surface, things are changing a little.  

 

 

There seems to be an acceptance at Aston Villa that Watkins cannot - or should not - continue to rack up full 90-minute performances week on week in the way that he has done in the past. That’s not to say he’s getting old - he’s 28 - or physically declining - he’s in impeccable shape. Instead, it’s more a recognition of what he’s done and what the modern football calendar still has in store for him. 

 

Watkins has played 3,000 minutes or more in each of the last 8 campaigns, a streak stretching back to 2016/17 with Exeter City in League Two. Last season was particularly intense, notching 3,227 minutes in the league alone, tacking on another 1,000 in cup competitions, then reaching the final of Euro 2024 with England. He played 89 minutes or more in the league 32 times, which included a remarkable 25-game streak that started at home to Crystal Palace on September 16 and ended away to West Ham on March 17th. That includes seven games played in December, a traditionally busy period. 

 

He’s as durable as they come, but even iron men have limits. That remarkable body of work, plus the summer’s exploits, has no doubt affected Unai Emery’s slightly tempered use of him this season. He started the opening day win over West Ham off the back of zero pre-season minutes, understandably only lasting an hour. He exited the next two games against Arsenal and Leicester City around the same time. 

 

His playing time has naturally risen again as he’s settled into the season, but it’s notable that he’s still only played two full games. We’re now into November and Watkins is still having his minutes measured, his games cut short, often regardless of whether Villa need a goal.  

 

 

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At the current rate, he’s projected to play 2,849 league minutes this season, shaving 12% of his tally from 2023/24 and dipping below the 3,000 mark for the first time since he was a teenager breaking through at Exeter. 

 

A big part of this equation is the emergence of Jhon Duran, who can not only step in ably, but take a defence that Watkins has run ragged and finish the job off emphatically. But another part is the recognition that in a 50-game Champions League season, Villa would be wise to find ways to keep Watkins 10% fresher, so he’s more able to impact at key junctures. 

 

Key junctures such as the game this coming weekend, away to Tottenham Hotspur. A contest between two major contenders for a top four spot, and one that may well have swung Watkins’ way slightly following Micky van de Ven’s injury in midweek. 

 

 

There are very few centre-backs who can keep Watkins quiet, but Van de Ven is one; his miraculous recovery abilities have stymied many in the last 18 months, but a hamstring strain means he won’t be around to help out on Sunday. 

 

Spurs’ fortunes change drastically for the worse when Van de Ven does not play; they lose a significantly higher percentage of games and, predictably, concede notably more goals. A case in point was the Fulham loss last season, where Rodrigo Muniz gave a Van de Ven-less backline the runaround. Watkins will be licking his lips ahead of this crucial game - and for once may actually feel 100% fit, ready and raring to go.

Tottenham vs Aston Villa: How Ollie Watkins can exploit Van de Ven-less Spurs