England vs Croatia match preview: The selection dilemmas in winner takes all encounter

It’s fair to say that the UEFA Nations League has been a hit in its first year, throwing up a fair few shocks and some hard-fought encounters to legitimise its competitiveness.

Many felt that the matches would be little more than glorified friendlies, particularly among Europe’s elite, but the scenario in Group 4 of League A is something that the organisers would have hoped for. A deciding match with everything to play for and four different permutations with regards to who will progress to next year’s finals and who will be relegated to League B.

It was a ding-dong battle in Croatia on Thursday night that set up an enthralling finale at Wembley on Sunday afternoon, with the World Cup finalists getting their revenge on a Spain side that thumped them 6-0 back in September.

Zlatko Dalic’s side ran out 3-2 winners courtesy of an injury time strike from Tin Jedvaj, meaning that a victory would see them top the group after the worst possible start. It’s an outcome that would relegate England in the process, but Gareth Southgate’s side have the same incentive with a victory of their own, while a share of the spoils would see Spain maintain top spot.

There’s more, however, with England relegated in the event of a score draw on away goals - with head-to-head taking precedent over goal difference - while a goalless stalemate would demote Croatia on the grounds of the latter.

With so much at stake there are some big decisions to be made by both coaches, and we take a look at the potential key battles as the Three Lions look to exact revenge on their victors from the World Cup semi-finals in the summer.

The big injury news heading into the game is that Ivan Rakitic is out having sustained a hamstring problem last week, so Dalic must decide whether to call upon Mateo Kovacic or the more defensive minded Milan Badelj in his midfield three. Given Marcelo Brozovic has established himself as a holding midfielder for both club and country of late, it’s the Chelsea star that may well get the nod, and he’s certainly a very capable replacement.

Southgate also has decisions to make with regards to his midfield trio, with the two sides set to lineup in a 4-3-3 formation, with a Tottenham trio of Eric Dier, Dele Alli and Harry Winks all fighting for places, along with the likes of Jordan Henderson, Fabian Delph, Ross Barkley and Ruben Loftus-Cheek.

It’s Winks that could well get the nod having started eight of 11 appearances for club and country since the start of October, with his tactical discipline and composure in possession perhaps enough to edge out some of the competition. Southgate will have Luka Modric at the forefront of his mind after all, particularly given the absence of Rakitic, knowing that limiting the Real Madrid star’s influence could be key to getting the result he needs.

After a slow start to the season following an understandable hangover from Croatia’s extreme World Cup exploits, the midfield maestro has improved of late and remains the biggest talent between the two sides when at his best. Solidity in the middle ground will be key for the hosts as a result, and while the both Henderson and Dier could start, the latter has been in and out of the side for Liverpool.

The other big selection dilemmas for England come in the full-back spots, with Kyle Walker and Trent Alexander-Arnold in competition on the right, and Luke Shaw and Ben Chilwell on the left. It is, after all, from wide areas that Croatia really caused England problems at the World Cup, through Inter pairing Sime Vrsajlko - from right-back - and winger Ivan Perisic in particular.

It was Walker, operating on the right of a back three at the time, that allowed the latter to steal in and equalise when the sides met back in July but he is likely to start in his more familiar right-back role this weekend. That’s despite a man of the match display from Alexander-Arnold in the win over USA, with the call as to who starts on the opposite side of the pitch probably tighter.

It was Chilwell that started the friendly, with Shaw sitting out altogether, but the Leicester full-back has now started the last three internationals and may well do so once more. The task on that side will be to keep tabs on both Andrej Kramaric and Ante Rebic, who have a license to rotate between the right wing and centre-forward positions following the international retirement of striker Mario Mandzukic.

At the opposite end it’s likely to be a straight shootout between Manchester United clubmates and best mates Jesse Lingard and Marcus Rashford. If the former gets the nod, he will likely line up on the right of a front three, while if the latter returns to the side it’s Raheem Sterling that may switch to a flank where England will hope to cause problems.

That’s because they will be facing the aforementioned Jedvaj who, despite being the hero for Croatia last week, will be playing out of position at left-back, even if the youngster does have experience playing all across the backline. Ivan Strinic is injured, while Josip Pivaric is a doubt, so Jedvaj, who lined up on the right the last time these sides met in an empty stadium last month, can expect a busy afternoon at Wembley, regardless of who Southgate decides to start on the right.

That was a game that, despite trailing in terms of shots and efforts on target, England will feel they should have won having created the better openings. A repeat of that subdued follow up to the semi-final clash between the two is highly unlikely in front of a packed crowd in a winner takes all encounter, so the Three Lions can’t afford to be as profligate on home soil.

A 0-0 draw may be enough for England to avoid the drop, but all three points are what both of these sides will be desperate for, so this will certainly be no friendly.