Finding the next… Vincent Kompany - A statistical analysis

How do you replace an icon? It’s a conundrum that a number of clubs will have to contend with this summer, with Philipp Lahm recently announcing that he will retire from Bayern at the end of the season. The German has enjoyed a stellar playing career and adapted his game throughout to play in both full-back positions as well as central midfield under Pep Guardiola.

Now at City, the Catalan boss needn’t worry about the Lahm predicament in Bavaria but may well have to find a replacement for one of his new club’s most treasured players. While Vincent Kompany may not have called time on his stay in Manchester, countless injuries in the last 18 months or so have left the side lacking his physical presence at the back.

John Stones was the only new centre-back to arrive in the summer, with both Martin Demichelis and Eliaquim Mangala allowed to leave, but the former Everton man has had a tough start to life at the Etihad. Never likely to step into the boots of the City captain, it’s been a role that Nicolas Otamendi has also struggled to fill despite proving more successful than most of the club’s defensive signings in recent seasons.

It’s abundantly clear that Guardiola will need to add reinforcements to his backline in the summer, after all relying on Aleksandr Kolarov at centre-back isn’t a long term solution by any means. More pertinently, however, with Kompany looking less and less likely to return to his former glories, the club need a new leader at the back.

With that in mind, we’ve tried to compile a shortlist of players that share some statistical similarities to the popular Belgian as City attempt to seek out the next Vincent Kompany. Our search brought about six names of players aged 25 or under in Europe’s top 5 leagues, one of which was Niklas Sule, who - having agreed to join Bayern from Hoffenheim in the summer - has been overlooked here.

The statistics analysed were tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, errors and how many times each player has been dribbled past, all per 90 minutes, as well as aerial success and pass accuracy. The five remaining players were then plotted into the following graph to compare with Kompany’s league statistics since the 2009/10 campaign.

Realistic targets

Virgil van Dijk (Southampton)

If the Dutchman were to stay at St. Mary’s this summer rather than following former centre-backs Lovren, Alderweireld and Fonte out of the exit door it would be a huge surprise. After a short settling in period the giant centre-half has taken to the Premier League with impressive ease and is now widely considered among the strongest in England’s top-flight. At 25 he still has plenty of time to improve, which is frightening really, and with experience of the league under his belt surely Manchester City, along with the majority of England’s elite, will be considering a move for the Saints man.

Van Dijk’s figures in the chart above plot closest to those of Kompany to boot, falling just below the Belgium international for tackles per 90 and pass accuracy - with respectable figures of 1.9 and 84.2% respectively - but well ahead of the City man when it comes to interceptions per 90 (2.6) and aerial success (75.4%) this season.

Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli)

If it’s a physical presence Guardiola is after, and that’s certainly what City seem to lack at the back right now, then Koulibaly could also be a legitimate alternative to Van Dijk. The Senegalese international had a patchy start to life in Naples but came on immensely last season and is now rightly considered among the best centre-backs in Italy. He’s drawn admiring glances from Chelsea to boot, so City would again be likely to face stiff competition for his signature should Napoli cash in, and if they do the 25-year old will undoubtedly fetch a considerable fee.

Although he too is a real unit at the back, Koulibaly’s figures for both clearances per 90 (3.8) and aerial success (58.7%) are some way lower than those of Kompany, though that in part is due to the contrasting styles of the two leagues. Where the Napoli man excels are blocks per 90 and pass accuracy (89.9%), with his distribution an asset that would surely appeal to Guardiola.

Youngsters worth a gamble?

Mauricio Lemos (Las Palmas)

Having rejected a move to Barcelona in the summer in favour of guaranteed game time, it’s unclear whether the Uruguayan may be keen on a move this summer but given City’s lack of options at the back he’d be more likely to see minutes in Eastlands than at Camp Nou. Guardiola will no doubt have a keen eye on La Liga still and given the blaugrana have shown concrete interest, it would be no surprise if their former boss were an admirer too.

Like Koulibaly but to a far more extreme and therefore potentially concerning extent, Lemos is no match for Kompany in terms of his physicality in the air - losing more aerial duels than he has won this season (11/21) - but he too shows great composure on the ball. As well as boasting a solid pass accuracy, the 21-year old hasn’t made a single error leading to a shot or goal and has been dribbled past just twice all season.

Niklas Stark (Hertha Berlin)

Certainly a risky option given that Stark has played much of his Bundesliga career as a defensive midfielder, there are, however, comparisons to be drawn with Kompany in that regard. The Belgian was used in that role at times with Hamburg before really establishing himself as a commanding centre-back at City and Stark is beginning to do that with Hertha. He has been used as a defender more often than in midfield this season and has looked assured when called upon.

He still needs to develop physically a little but has ample time to do so at 21 and is the only player in this study that trumps Kompany’s figures for both tackles and interceptions per 90, while also leading the way for blocks.

The unlikely option

Andreas Christensen (Borussia M.Gladbach)

Young Danish centre-back Christensen certainly isn’t an unlikely option due to any lack of ability but due to the fact that his parent club just happens to be Chelsea. Not only are the Blues reluctant to sell their on loan defender, rejecting permanent offers from Gladbach, but letting such a promising talent leave for a direct title rival, if not this season then next, would be a huge gamble on the Londoners' part.

That may well be a shame for Guardiola, who would have seen Christensen develop first hand in the Bundesliga last season, given that the 21-year old boasts outstanding passing figures. Indeed, his accuracy of 90.9% not only dwarves Kompany’s average at City (86.1%) but is the best in this study. Moreover, an impressive reading of the game and aerial success perhaps would have made him a prime candidate were he not on the books at Chelsea. Indeed, we may well see Christensen in the Premier League next season following a two-year loan spell in Germany, but it would be a massive shock if that wasn’t at Stamford Bridge.